Q1 Letter to Clients

As we close the fourth quarter of 2025 and step into a new year, I want to take a moment to reflect – not just on markets and portfolios, but on the purpose behind the plan itself.

Quarterly statements naturally draw attention to short-term market movements. They are part of the story, but never the whole story. At Ridgeline, our work together has always been grounded in a longer view: helping thoughtful, capable people design financial lives that support not only security, but meaningful experiences along the way.

Many of you I would describe as Everyday Explorers – people who take responsibility seriously, but who also want to remain curious, engaged, and fully present in your lives. Financial planning, done well, should make room for both.

The Market Backdrop: Q4 2025

The final quarter of 2025 reminded investors of a familiar truth: markets are dynamic, unpredictable, and often uncomfortable in the short term.

U.S. equities experienced continued volatility as investors weighed inflation data, evolving Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and questions around economic growth. Leadership rotated within the market, sentiment shifted quickly, and headlines offered no shortage of reasons to feel either optimistic or uneasy depending on the day.

This kind of environment can test confidence – especially if investing is viewed as a quarterly scorecard. But volatility is not an anomaly. It is a feature of markets, not a failure of them.  Uncertainty is not a flaw in the system – it is the system.  The real question is not whether volatility exists, but whether your plan is built to withstand it.

Why We Don’t Chase Returns or Predictions

One of the most important principles I want to reinforce – especially during uncertain periods – is that investment decisions should never be about chasing returns or predicting where markets will go next.

No one can consistently forecast short-term market outcomes. Acting as though we can often lead to unnecessary stress, poor timing decisions, and behavior that undermines long-term success.

Instead, our planning framework begins with a different foundation: ensuring that your future liabilities are matched or offset with safe, liquid resources.

When near-term spending needs, lifestyle costs, and known future obligations are covered by appropriate reserves and conservative assets, the long-term investment portfolio can do its job without interference. Growth assets are then free to compound over time, through inevitable cycles of optimism and uncertainty.

When this structure is in place, year-to-year market movements become background noise rather than a source of anxiety.

Planning With Intention – and With Life in Mind

One of the themes I continue to emphasize with clients is that planning should support living now, not just preparing for later.

For Everyday Explorers, that often means intentionally building room for travel, time away, outdoor pursuits, family experiences, and personal challenges that make life richer and more memorable. These experiences don’t happen accidentally. They require planning, margin, and clarity.

This is why our conversations extend beyond investments. Cash flow, liquidity, tax strategy, and risk management all play a role in creating the flexibility to say yes to meaningful experiences when the opportunity arises.

Tax and Planning Updates

As we move into 2026, several changes in the tax and legislative landscape are worth noting. Recent federal budget and benefits legislation is beginning to affect real-world planning decisions, including:

  • Adjustments to retirement contribution limits and age-based catch-up provisions
  • Ongoing evolution of required minimum distribution rules and inherited account timelines
  • Shifting income thresholds that affect deductions, credits, and phase-outs
  • The approaching sunset of certain prior tax provisions, increasing the importance of multi-year planning

None of these changes require reactive decisions. They do, however, reinforce the value of proactive coordination – aligning tax strategy, investment structure, and lifestyle goals well before deadlines appear.

Staying Grounded in What We Can Control

Market volatility tends to pull attention toward what we cannot control: headlines, forecasts, and short-term performance.

Your plan, however, is built around what is controllable:

  • Spending and savings decisions
  • Liquidity for known obligations
  • Asset allocation aligned with time horizons
  • Risk exposure that reflects your goals and temperament
  • A disciplined, long-term approach

When these elements are aligned, the plan does not rely on perfect market conditions to succeed. It relies on preparation, patience, and perspective.

Looking Ahead

As we enter the new year, my commitment to you remains unchanged. I will continue to approach planning through the lens of your life, not quarterly market noise. We will continue to design plans that prioritize resilience over prediction and flexibility over optimization.

Most importantly, we will continue to use money as it was intended to be used: as a tool that supports security, opportunity, and a life well lived along the way.

Thank you for your trust and partnership. I look forward to our upcoming conversations and to navigating the road ahead together.

Recent interest rate cuts: What they mean for savings, mortgages and cash management

The Federal Reserve recently cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% from 4.25%. This September 2025 Fed rate cut was widely expected, reflecting slower job growth, rising unemployment, and inflation that remains above target. The move signals a cautious shift: the Fed wants to support the labor market to keep people employed without reigniting inflation.

Why the Fed cut rates

Inflation in services has stayed sticky even as the broader economy shows signs of cooling. By trimming rates, the Fed is aiming to balance recession risks with its commitment to long-term price stability (known as the Fed’s Dual Mandate). Markets had largely priced in this cut, and future policy moves will likely hinge on labor market data and inflation trends.

Impact on savings accounts and money market rates

Here is where the rubber meets the road.  For savers, Fed cuts often translate into lower yields on savings accounts and money market funds. Online banks and credit unions may hold rates higher to remain competitive for a short period, but traditional deposit accounts usually adjust downward within months, if not immediately. Money market funds tend to react fastest, since they are directly tied to short-term rates.

This makes it essential for savers to compare account yields regularly. As rates decline, holding cash in a low-interest account could mean leaving money on the table.

Cash management programs

To maximize returns, many investors are turning to cash management programs.  One such example is Flourish Cash. These platforms sweep deposits into a network of FDIC-insured banks, offering:

  • Competitive, high-yield savings alternatives without fees or minimums
  • Extended FDIC protection beyond the standard $250,000 limit due to the number of banks involved in the sweep program
  • Daily rate adjustments that track prevailing market conditions
  • Liquidity and flexibility, allowing easy transfers in and out

Programs like Flourish Cash are designed to help cash balances earn more in both rising and falling rate environments. When rates go up, program yields can reset higher. When rates fall, these programs still provide better returns than most traditional checking or savings accounts, making them a valuable part of cash management in 2025.

Mortgage rates and refinance opportunities

A common misconception is that mortgage rates fall directly with Fed cuts. In reality, 30-year mortgage rates are tied more closely to long-term Treasury yields and investor demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). As a result, fixed mortgage rates may not drop much after a Fed cut.  However, borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) often see more immediate relief, since these products reset based on short-term benchmarks.

For homeowners, mortgage refinance opportunities in 2025 depend on long-term yields. If Treasury and MBS yields decline alongside Fed cuts, refinancing can unlock real savings. Homeowners should weigh the potential monthly payment reduction against closing costs and the time they expect to stay in their home.

The bottom line

The recent Fed rate cut underscores the importance of staying proactive with your money. Savers should explore high-yield savings alternatives and consider cash management solutions to protect returns. Homeowners should track long-term mortgage rates to evaluate refinance opportunities, while those with ARMs or HELOCs may benefit more immediately from recent rate changes.

In today’s shifting interest rate environment, agility is key – aligning your cash, borrowing, and investment strategies ensures your money continues working for you, no matter how rates move.

Q4 Letter to Clients

I could sit and watch a stream or river all day long.  There is constant movement, and yet, the water is always right there in front of me, covering the same ground, falling over the same rocks and touching the same boundary on each side.  The water isn’t in a hurry. It shapes rock by returning to the same line again and again. That felt like a useful reminder for investing but really, for life – we make real progress by showing up with purpose and relentless consistency, not by forcing outcomes.  It’s a lesson that I seemingly must learn over and over again, but also continues to inform my approach to good, sound financial planning.

Market and Economic Overview

The third quarter brought plenty of headlines around interest rates, inflation reads, and geopolitics, yet the market’s tape told a different story. U.S. stocks advanced through the quarter, with the S&P 500 posting gains in July, August, and September and notching several new record closes in September. It didn’t move in a straight line, but it did move – and more than the headlines alone might suggest. For context, late September trading steadied after inflation data came in as expected.  Day-to-day swings will keep coming, but they don’t change the core job of a long-term plan.

Developed markets outside the U.S. also showed strength. Part of their performance stems from a weaker U.S. dollar, which amplifies returns in dollar-terms for overseas equities. This has also supported returns in emerging markets, which have surpassed U.S. equities.  The theme continues to be that different markets lead at different times, and spreading risk across geographies helps steady the journey.

Planning Moves That Matter

Just like the water in my favorite stream, we’re focusing on things that compound quietly and that make meaningful changes over time:

  • Cash segmentation for spending needs – matching an appropriate amount of known withdrawals to high-quality cash vehicles (money markets, Treasuries, short-term bonds or other ladders) so the rest of the portfolio can do its long-term work.
  • Rebalance with intent – trim what has run, add to what’s lagged inside your target ranges, and redeploy new cash strategically into the asset classes most out of balance.
  • Year-end tax work – harvest losses where appropriate, manage capital gains distributions, and pair giving with taxes: direct appreciated shares to donor-advised funds, consider QCDs if you’re taking RMDs, and review state-specific opportunities before December 31.
  • Purpose-built buckets – where it fits, we’ll keep leaning into liability-driven investing that ties assets to time horizons instead of a single, generic “risk number.”

If your cash flow, goals, or time frames have shifted recently, let’s update the map now rather than after January 1.

Money and Meaning

Optimizing your money is obviously important but not if it comes at the expense of optimizing your life (I’m speaking to myself here).  Recent On Adventure conversations offered a thread worth carrying into Q4.

  • Bob Becker spoke about finishing Badwater 135 at age 80 – not with bravado, but with gratitude, routine, and a stubborn gentleness that kept him moving when it got ugly.
  • Lisa Smith-Batchen (will be released on October 3) reminded us that the best crews and mentors hold a mirror to your ‘why’ when your legs want to quit.
  • Wells Jones talked about drawing a line in the sand – not as a dare, but as a promise to live aligned with what matters.

Nature is saying the same thing right now. The light changes. The trail looks different. The real work is to keep showing up with intention. Money is just one of the tools that helps you do that – to buy time, fund experiences with the people you love, support causes that reflect your values, and create margin for the kind of adventures that make you feel most alive.

Thank you for your trust. If something in your world has changed – a new goal, a liquidity event, a move, college bills, eldercare planning – let us know and we’ll adjust the plan together.

Making your cash work: Smart management in a shifting monetary landscape

In today’s uncertain financial environment, idle cash doesn’t need to sit there. With high-yield, FDIC-insured options and rising awareness of monetary policy dynamics, you can make sure your liquidity still earns its keep. Here’s a look at standout solutions and what to watch.

Cash management options worth knowing
  • Flourish Cash

Flourish Cash is a brokerage-based cash sweep vehicle that partners with multiple FDIC-insured “program banks.” It offers competitive, variable interest rates—around 4.0% APY as of late April 2025—and spreads your deposits across many banks to expand FDIC coverage. You receive one statement and tax form no matter how many banks hold your funds, and transfers are generally seamless.

  • High-Yield Money-Market & Savings Accounts

High-yield savings accounts remain popular for their accessibility, though attractive rates are often promotional and can drop over time. Money-market funds typically offer higher yields—around 4–4.5%, with some pushing 5% in recent years. However, note that many of these are not FDIC-insured, and rates remain sensitive to Federal Reserve policy.

  • Cash‑Management Accounts (CMAs)

Offered by brokers and robo-advisors, CMAs blend checking, savings, and investing tools. They usually provide higher interest than traditional bank accounts, and your funds may or may not be insured via FDIC or SIPC. They facilitate payments, transfers, and even debit card access—helpful if you want seamless functionality without locking up funds.

How Monetary Policy shapes cash yields

Monetary policy – especially interest-rate movements by the Fed – has a direct, powerful effect on what cash earns.

  • When rates rise, as they did in recent years, money flows into high-yield instruments like money-market funds and sweep accounts. As of December 2024, money-market funds held roughly $7 trillion as inflows continued despite expectations rates would fall. Yields hovered around 4.39%, a stark contrast to average bank savings near 0.5%.
  • Looking ahead to 2025, some analysts expect rate cuts could shift investor behavior—less reward for idle cash may drive money into bonds or equities, especially as these markets show gains. Still, the high level of cash holdings suggests many investors may linger in money markets longer.
  • Institutional preference for stability remains evident—corporations are allocating more to high-yield money-market instruments to capitalize on elevated interest. As of late 2023, nonfinancial S&P 500 companies held 56% of their assets in cash and equivalents, seeing favorable returns.
Top 3 things to watch – and take action on
  1. Interest‑Rate Trends & Fed Signals – Fed rate changes directly impact cash‑account yields. Review your accounts regularly—are they outpacing or lagging current rates?
  2.  FDIC‑Insurance Structure & Coverage Limits – Tools like Flourish spread deposits across banks to maximize protection. If you hold a lot of cash, make sure you’re not exposed to single-bank FDIC caps. This is so important and something that I see many wealthy clients overlook regularly!
  3. Liquidity Needs vs. Yield Trade‑offs – Higher yield often comes with limitations. Define your cash needs—daily use vs. emergency reserve—and match them to the most fitting vehicle.

Cash doesn’t have to be passive. With the right tools and vigilance, your liquid assets can work harder without compromising security or flexibility.  Want to discuss this cornerstone topic further?  Let us know!

5 Key Provisions in the New Tax Bill That High Net Worth Families Need to Know

Congress just passed one of the most sweeping tax overhauls we’ve seen in years. It’s already being described as a “once in a generation” shift – both in scope and impact. While most headlines focus on broad middle class relief, the truth is that high net worth families and top earners will feel some of the most significant ripple effects. Changes to deductions, new savings vehicles, and shifting rules around charitable giving will require a fresh look at how you structure income, investments, and legacy planning.

With so much noise around the bill, I want to cut through the clutter and highlight the five provisions that matter most. More importantly, I’ll share what they could mean for your planning over the next several years.

  1. Expanded SALT Deduction (State & Local Taxes)

One of the most talked about changes is the overhaul of the SALT deduction. The federal cap on state and local tax deductions jumps from $10,000 to $40,000, though it phases out for households with income above $500,000 and reverts to $10,000 around 2030.

Why it matters: For those living in high tax states or holding significant real estate, this offers meaningful relief – especially if you itemize. It’s a chance to reclaim more of your property and state income tax payments, though timing will be critical given the phase out rules.

  1. New Deductions for Overtime and Tips

For 2025 through 2028, the law introduces a deduction for tips and overtime income income: up to $25,000 for tips and $12,500 for overtime. These deductions are available up to $150,000 AGI for individuals and $300,000 for joint filers.

Why it matters: If you own hospitality or service businesses – or employ tipped labor – this could reduce taxable income significantly. While the impact lessens for higher earners due to phaseouts, the deduction could still shape compensation strategies for your workforce.

  1. “Trump Accounts” for Children (A New Tax Advantaged Savings Vehicle)

Children born between 2025 and 2029 will automatically receive a $1,000 government contribution into a new tax advantaged savings account, with parents able to contribute up to $5,000 annually. Growth is tax deferred, and funds can be used for college, training, or first home purchases.

Why it matters: While modest in size, these accounts add a fresh layer to multi generation planning. High net worth families can leverage them as part of broader tuition or estate planning strategies, especially in states with their own gift or estate taxes.

     4. Charitable Giving Deduction Changes

Two major shifts affect charitable planning:

1. Above the line charitable deduction: Non-itemizers can now deduct up to $1,000 ($2,000 for joint filers) for donations.

2. Limits on high-income deductions: For top earners, charitable deductions now max out at 35% rather than 37%, and total deductions reduce slightly by 0.5% of AGI.

Why it matters: For families with significant giving goals, the tax impact of large donations shrinks slightly. It may be time to revisit giving vehicles – like donor advised funds or charitable trusts – to preserve tax efficiency while meeting philanthropic goals. You might also want to consider pulling in future donations to 2025 as the changes don’t go into effect until January 1, 2026.

    5. Re-Emergence of Itemized Deduction Phase-Out

The bill revives a version of the old “Pease limitation.” For taxpayers in the top bracket, each dollar of itemized deduction now yields a 35% benefit rather than 37%.

Why it matters: This subtle reduction affects deductions for mortgage interest, high property taxes, and charitable gifts. For ultra-high-net-worth households, this reinforces the value of pre-tax strategies – like maximizing retirement contributions and structuring investment income – rather than relying solely on itemized deductions.

Planning Opportunities

• Itemizing vs. Standard Deduction: The new SALT cap and higher standard deduction (rising to $31,500 for joint filers in 2025) change the math. We’ll analyze whether itemizing still makes sense or if bundling deductions into specific years creates better results.

• Employer Strategies: For business owners with tipped or overtime-heavy staff, timing and structuring pay to maximize deductions could save meaningful taxes – just watch the phase-out thresholds.

• Charitable Planning: Consider front-loading gifts in 2025 into donor-advised funds or split-interest trusts to optimize deductions under the new limits.

• Next Generation Funding: New children’s accounts can be incorporated into college and estate strategies, even if the dollar amounts are small relative to your broader plan.

Caveats and Watch Outs

• Phase-Outs: Many benefits diminish quickly as income rises – so expect targeted rather than sweeping savings at higher brackets.

• Expiration Dates: Several provisions sunset in 2028. Planning should factor in the potential for future reversals.

• Implementation Lag: Expect IRS guidance and payroll system updates over the next year. There may be temporary confusion around how new deductions are claimed.

Bottom Line

This tax bill reshapes how deductions and savings vehicles work – particularly for high income and high net worth households. While some provisions offer new opportunities (like the SALT increase or children’s accounts), others trim back existing benefits (like charitable and itemized deductions).

The real key is personalized planning: aligning your giving, investing, and income timing with these new rules to maximize after-tax results. Over the next few months, we’ll be reviewing client strategies and looking for ways to capture opportunities while minimizing surprises.

If you’d like to walk through what this means for your 2025 plan – or explore strategies before year end – let’s talk. These changes are too significant to navigate on autopilot.

Q3 Letter to Clients

July 2025

The days are already getting shorter – barely noticeable, but real. And while many of us in the South still have some scorcher days ahead, the halfway point of the year is a good time to pause and reflect.

Market and Economic Overview

Feeling some whiplash from the markets lately? You’re not alone. It’s been a wild ride, and once again, it reminds us why we’re such big fans of staying in your seat. Global tensions have kept uncertainty front and center, which usually means more market volatility. In plain terms, the roller coaster gets steeper—both on the way down and the way back up.

History has shown that some of the biggest market gains come right after sharp declines. The problem is, we never know exactly when that rebound will happen. Guessing wrong can be costly – and in some cases, set a portfolio back for decades (see the chart below).

In moments like the February 19th to April 8th drawdown this year – when the S&P 500 fell nearly 19% in just a few weeks – the temptation to jump off the ride can be strong. It will take your breath away.  But staying disciplined and committed to your plan is what makes the difference. It’s time in the market, not timing the market, that leads to long-term success.

One note of caution: it’s important that money needed for near-term living expenses isn’t exposed to these kinds of market swings. Lately, we’ve become strong advocates of a liability-driven investment approach – matching your investments to specific future spending needs – rather than just thinking in terms of general asset allocation. If that’s unfamiliar, we’d love to talk more at your next meeting.

Money in Service of Values

When markets get noisy, perspective matters. Money is at its best when it serves what you truly value. That’s a theme I’ve heard repeatedly from recent guests on my On Adventure podcast—entrepreneurs, musicians, conservationists. The thread that runs through all their stories? Wealth isn’t the end goal. It’s a tool to create freedom, meaning, and impact.

What’s the point of building bigger buckets if the money never gets used to shape a better life—for yourself or someone else? When aligned with purpose, money becomes transformative. It allows us to live with integrity, build what matters, and contribute beyond ourselves. And yes, to seek out a few great adventures along the way.  In that light, money becomes more than just currency. It becomes agency.

Thank you for your continued trust. Please feel free to reach out anytime.

Q2 Letter to Clients

As we wrap up the first quarter of 2025, I want to briefly reflect on recent market activity and share some thoughtful insights on maintaining perspective during volatile times.

Market and Economic Overview

This quarter reminded us that markets rarely move in a straight line. The S&P 500 saw a decline of a little more than 4%, driven largely by investor unease over inflation concerns and uncertainty about global trade policies. Additionally, international markets showed surprising resilience, with the MSCI All Country World Index ex-U.S. index outperforming the S&P 500 index by nearly 11 percentage points, marking the strongest first-quarter performance for international stocks since 1987, demonstrating the importance of diversification in your portfolios.  And yet, these numbers mean nothing to me, and they shouldn’t to you either.  Index returns, especially over one quarter, say nothing about whether you are on track to achieve your own personal goals or more importantly, about whether you are living your great life right now.  You should be tracking your ROL index, and the stock market has nothing to do with that!  These short-term returns are just noise, distracting you from the conversation that really matters.

Strategic Opportunities Amid Volatility

While volatility can feel uncomfortable, it’s essential to recognize the opportunities it creates for a long-term investor. We continuously monitor your portfolios for opportunities like tax-loss harvesting – turning short-term declines into meaningful tax savings – and strategic rebalancing which keeps your investments on target to your risk model.  Or better yet, if you have cash on the sidelines, putting new cash to work in your investment accounts is a great way to take advantage of lower asset prices, which has an outsized effect on your future portfolio!  Volatility coming from risk is also the price we all must pay in order to expect longer-term returns that outpace inflation. 

Great New Content

In line with our belief in tuning out short-term noise and focusing on long-term goals, Dimensional Fund Advisors recently released an exceptional documentary film called, “Tune Out the Noise,” directed by Academy award-winning filmmaker, Errol Morris. I highly recommend this impactful video, which beautifully captures the essence of remaining grounded and focused amid market distractions, spoken from the perspectives of some of the smartest people in finance over the last 60 years.  Check it out in the link below.

Above all, remember that your financial plan is built specifically for times like these – grounded in your personal goals, risk tolerance, and life’s milestones. Markets will always fluctuate, but our commitment to your financial well-being remains constant.

Thank you for your continued trust. Please feel free to reach out anytime.

Election Day Reflections

I sent this letter out initially in the midst of Election Day.  There obviously was a lot of energy in the air. Anticipation runs high, and the headlines were filled with speculation on what the choices mean for the markets. But here’s the perspective we can hold: while political outcomes may feel momentous, they rarely dictate the path of long-term investments.

Here are some helpful reminders as we continue to move through this election cycle:

Election outcomes and stock market outcomes are not correlated.

Election results and market returns are often far less connected than the news might suggest. For example, research by Fidelity has shown that, over time, the S&P 500 has performed comparably under both Democratic and Republican administrations—regardless of who held Congress. Since 1976, every market sector has had periods of growth during both Democratic and Republican terms. Across election cycles since 1976, each sector has performed well at times, regardless of which party holds the White House.  The markets, it seems, march to a rhythm of their own.

Cause and effect in the markets is rarely direct.

During election seasons, it’s tempting to act on predictions about how new socioeconomic policies might influence the markets. However, even the most astute commentators cannot reliably forecast market reactions to political shifts. Financial writer for Forbes John Jennings compares this to scientists who understand why volcanoes occur but cannot predict each eruption. In markets, just as in nature, the ability to explain an event is different from the ability to foresee it.

Elections come and go; your investments have a much longer time horizon.

We may vote for a president every four years, but your portfolio is designed to endure and grow over decades. Data spanning nearly a century, illustrated by Dimensional Fund Advisors, shows that U.S. equities have consistently trended upward, no matter which party was in power. Staying the course remains the most effective path forward for reaching your long-term goals.

So as the election buzz fills the air, know that your investments are positioned for resilience. Let’s keep our sights on the horizon, with our long-term objectives leading the way.

Steady onward.

 

Less is More in Election Years

I am getting tons of questions right now (and every 4 years historically) about what does the election cycle mean for my investments and what should we do to ‘protect’ ourselves.  These are legitimate questions coming from an honest place of concern about important matters.  My answer has been pretty consistent now for over 20 years, but I could not write this any better, so I’m going to leave this to an expert.  This is a must read from Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavioral Officer with Orion.  He is a psychologist and behavioral finance expert with a New York Times best seller.

 

 

As the 2024 election approaches, the political noise is deafening. Campaigns are in full swing, pundits are making predictions, and market analysts are offering endless advice on how to manage your investments. However, the best strategy for your portfolio during this tumultuous time might surprise you: do nothing.

In times of great political and economic uncertainty, the instinct to take action can be overwhelming. This tendency, known by shrinks like me as “action bias,” is the inclination to favor action over inaction, especially when the stakes are high. It’s a concept that’s particularly relevant in the world of investing.

Consider the world of soccer, where goalkeepers, faced with penalty kicks, often dive dramatically to the left or right. A group of researchers examined 311 penalty kicks and found that goalies dove to the left or right 94% of the time. However, the kicks were distributed roughly equally: one-third to the left, one-third to the right, and one-third down the middle. Goalkeepers who stayed in the center had a 60% chance of stopping the ball, far greater than the odds when diving left or right.

So why do goalkeepers choose dramatic dives over the more effective strategy of staying centered? When we put ourselves in the shoes (or cleats) of the goalie, especially in high-stakes situations, the reason becomes clear. When the game and national pride are on the line, goalies want to appear as though they are giving a heroic effort. Staying centered can look like complacency, even though it’s statistically the best choice. This same dynamic applies to investors who, in times of market distress, feel compelled to act, even when inaction would serve them better.

When Vanguard examined the performance of accounts that had made no changes versus those that had made tweaks, they found that the “no change” condition handily outperformed the tinkerers. Meir Statman cites research from Sweden showing that the heaviest traders lose 4 percent of their account value each year to trading costs and poor timing and these results are consistent across the globe. Across 19 major stock exchanges, investors who made frequent changes trailed buy-and-hold investors by 1.5 percentage points per year.

Perhaps the best-known study on the damaging effects of action bias also provides insight into gender-linked tendencies in trading behavior. Terrance Odean and Brad Barber, two of the fathers of behavioral finance, looked at the individual accounts of a large discount broker and found something that surprised them at the time.

The men in the study traded 45 percent more than the women, with single men out-trading their female counterparts by an incredible 67 percent. Barber and Odean attribute this greater activity to overconfidence, but whatever its psychological roots, it consistently degraded returns. As a result of overactivity, the average man in the study underperformed the average woman by 1.4 percentage points per year. Worse still, single men lagged single women by 2.3 percent – an incredible drag when compounded over an investment lifetime.

The tendency of women to outperform is not only seen in retail investors, however. Female hedge fund managers have consistently and soundly thumped their male colleagues, owing largely to the patience discussed above. As LouAnn Lofton of the Motley Fool reports, “…funds managed by women have, since inception, returned an average 9.06 percent, compared to just 5.82 percent averaged by a weighted index of other hedge funds. As if that outperformance weren’t impressive enough, the group also found that during the financial panic of 2008, these women-managed funds weren’t hurt nearly as severely as the rest of the hedge fund universe, with the funds dropping 9.61 percent compared to the 19.03 percent suffered by other funds.”

As the 2024 election unfolds, resist the urge to make dramatic changes to your portfolio. Remember, sometimes the best action is inaction. By staying the course and avoiding the pitfalls of action bias, you can protect and grow your wealth, regardless of the political landscape.

Source: The Laws of Wealth, Crosby  

 

February Market Update

For the investor looking for market details and explanations, this February Market Update article is for you.  Broad market index and tech stock investors were in command throughout January, even as the month ended with a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting taming some potentially over-enthusiastic March rate cut bulls. 

 

With the tech and major market index rally continuing its run since November, I thought now would be a good time to inform you of the latest developments set to impact Americans in the months ahead. 

 

Major Stock Indexes

 

January was good for long-term investors in U.S. stocks, especially in large tech with AI exposure.  If you haven’t heard of Nvidia before, you will from now on.  Market bulls (ie, investors expecting the market to continue its run upward) were cheering the prospects of a more accommodating Fed in 2024, with the rate decision and Fed statement happening on the last day of the month. 

 

For the month of January, the S&P 500 added 1.59%, the Nasdaq 100 tacked on 1.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.22%.

 

Mixed/Slowing Inflation Signals

 

The overall trend for inflation was mixed in January, even as Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in a bit hot.

 

CPI: The December Consumer Price Index showed a 0.3% monthly increase in December and a 3.4% increase versus one year ago. Estimates were for a 0.2% monthly gain in December and a 3.2% gain year-over-year. Shelter and services pricing remained sticky.

 

PPI: For December, the Producer Price Index report came in below expectations, indicating mixed signals on the inflation front.

 

According to the report, wholesale prices declined by 0.1% month-over-month in December, lower than the expected gain of 0.1% estimated by Dow Jones economists.

 

PCE: According to the most recent Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release, the rate of price increases slowed down as 2023 came to a close. 

 

The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator showed that prices were higher by 0.2% month-over-month in December and by 2.9% year-over-year. Dow Jones economists had expected respective increases of 0.2% and 3%. However, digging a little deeper and looking at the three and six-month averages of Core PCE on an annualized basis, we see it running under 2% (note: the Fed’s Target is 2%). This data, noted by former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Lael Brainard and provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has inflation watchers cheering the current market environment.

 

Fed Put?

 

In plain English, a “Fed put” means that the Fed is standing by to change policy if needed, should the equity markets experience declines.  At present, it feels like there are the makings of a Fed put under the market. If storm clouds arise, the market is expecting the Fed to “come to the rescue” with rate cuts in 2024 if needed.  The market was expecting six rate cuts in 2024 before the January Fed meeting, even though the economy has been performing well as of late. This outlook is not the norm. Historically, rate cuts are seen in struggling or downtrodden economies that need stimulation.  The January Fed meeting tempered expectations for a March rate cut, with probabilities declining from 50% to 35.5% on January 31. However, it is still early in this election year, so pay attention.

 

This idea of a Fed put is a concept, not a guarantee, and seemed to be on the mind of many market participants at the start of February, indicating that the collective market mindset could be that any pullbacks may be short-lived.

 

Treasury Yields Steady in January

 

The widely monitored 10-year Treasury note yield was close to unchanged for the month of January, closing the month near 3.966% — about 10 basis points higher than December’s closing level near 3.865%.  This is the yield most closely tied to the movement of mortgage rates, so it is watched closely.  January marks two consecutive monthly closes below 4.00% in the 10-year yield.  The steadiness in rates is good news for sidelined prospective mortgage borrowers and great news for long-term investors in U.S. equities.

 

Fed Rate Decision

 

The last day of January gave us the first Fed meeting of 2024, as the Fed left interest rates unchanged in line with market expectations.  There were some changes to the Fed’s statement, however, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to want to tame the market’s excitement for a March rate cut.  “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to cut rates,” Powell said.  The verbal statement indicating that a March rate cut is not likely poured some water on the fire of potentially overly enthusiastic stock market bulls as the major averages pulled back during and after Powell’s commentary.  Powell did signal rate cuts at some point in 2024, however.  “It will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” said Powell.

 

Pretty vague, huh?  Fed-speak is one of the hardest languages to learn!

 

Consumer & Employment Strong

 

Consumer health metrics remained strong during January, even as many analysts expect the consumer to “tap out”.  At the same time, labor market data exceeded expectations for December, showing 216,000 jobs created. Government jobs and health-care-related fields led the way.

 

Starting the month of February, the latest employment report blew away all expectations, showing 353,000 jobs created in January versus 185,000 estimates by Dow Jones. The labor market continues to surprise to the upside, and the market reaction was an interesting one.

 

January Labor Data Market Reaction

 

While the massively better-than-expected January jobs data indicates a stronger economy, it also shows that the economy may still be running hotter than the Fed wants to see. This reinforces the logical probability that a March rate cut could be off the table.

 

Major U.S. stock indexes didn’t seem to mind, though, as they cheered the data by trading to the upside on the day of. The jobs report was released the morning after positive earnings results from Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, and Amazon. So, perhaps this earnings effect outshined the March rate cut odds everyone seemed to be so fixated upon just a day before.

 

The probability for a March 25-basis-point cut was all over the place at the end of January and beginning of February, resting at a 20% chance on February 1 after sitting at a 46.2% chance on January 26th, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

 

Is the economy still too hot? What do the continuing and massive upside surprises in the job market mean for inflation?  This is interesting data for short term speculation, but as you have heard many times in the past, short term data is not very helpful in making long term decisions with your investments.  Pay attention to these data points, if you find it interesting, but don’t let any of it sway you from your financial planning course.