Quarterly Letter to Clients

The first three months of the year would not be described as boring by any stretch of the imagination.  With the war in Ukraine continuing to create global uncertainty and the government-assisted closing of two of the largest regional banks in history, there is plenty to capture our short-term focus.  But even with these and other events, many stock indexes are up since early January and bond prices have seen some recovery as interest rate pressure has eased a bit. The point is that sometimes investment returns can tell a different story than does the current headlines.

However, whether the numbers are up or down in any given year, we caution against letting them alter your mood, or as importantly, your portfolio mix. Because, when it comes to future expected returns, short term performance is among the least significant determinants available.

Thumbs Down…Thumbs Up

In the thumbs-down category, U.S. stock market indexes1  turned in annual lows not seen since 2008, with most of the heaviest big tech stocks2 taking a bath. Bonds fared no better, as the U.S. Federal
Reserve raised rates to tamp down inflation. The U.K.’s economic policies3 resulted in Liz Truss becoming its shortest-tenured prime minister ever, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s continued COVID woes kept the global economy in a tailspin. Cryptocurrency exchanges like FTX4… well, you know what happened there.

On the plus side, inflation has appeared to be easing slightly, and so far, a recession has yet to materialize. A globally diversified, value-tilted strategy5 has helped protect against some (certainly
not all) of the worst returns. An 8.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)6 for Social Security recipients has helped ease some of the spending sting, as should some of the provisions within the newly enacted SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022.

Recency Bias

Now, how much of this did you see coming last January? Given the unique blend of social, political, and economic news that defined the year, it’s unlikely anything but blind luck could have led to accurate
expectations at the outset.

 In fact, even if you believe you knew we were in for trouble back then, it’s entirely possible you are altering reality, thanks to recency and hindsight bias. The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig7 ran an experiment to demonstrate how our memories can deceive us like that. Last January, he asked readers to send in their market predictions for 2022. Then, toward year-end, he asked them to recall their predictions (without peeking). The conclusion: “[Respondents] remembered being much less bullish than they had been in real time.”

In other words, just after most markets had experienced a banner year of high returns in 2021, many people were predicting more of the same. Then, the reality of a demoralizing year rewrote their memories; they subconsciously overlaid their original optimism with today’s pessimism.

What have we learned?

Where does this leave us? Clearly, there are better ways to prepare for the future than being influenced by current market conditions, and how we’re feeling about them today. Instead, everything we cannot yet know will shape near-term market returns, while everything we’ve learned from decades of disciplined investing should shape our long-range investment plans. 

In other words, stay informed but be careful to not be swayed into a reactive decision. Keep your long-term lenses on and your future self will thank you for it.
 

As we head into a new quarter, always know that we are here to help and are grateful for your
continued trust.

Josh

 

Quarterly Letter to Clients

Well, we made it to 2021 so how are you feeling?  The start of a new year can breed hope for new possibilities.  Even though 2020 was oppressive to most in so many ways, I do think we can still hold hope for the new year.  I have never been one to focus on New Year’s resolutions as they always felt like a recipe for disappointment (I know that is not the case for everyone, though).  What I am striving for this year is not new resolutions, but rather strengthening routines.  Routines feel more in my control, and if 2020 taught anything, it is to control what we can control.  One of these areas for me is to practice gratitude.  I have begun by thinking of 3 things I am grateful for each night before I go to sleep.  It is refreshing and encouraging to think on these things.  When we talk later this year, feel free to check on my progress with this.  This is just one small example, and I am sure that you have others that jump to your mind.  Let me encourage you to pursue practices like this for the sake of your own mental health in 2021.

Speaking of control…

You likely have heard us say in the past that market performance is not an area that any of us have control.  Because of this, it is wasted energy to focus and worry about market movements.  You should spend that energy doing things you can control: spend less than what you make, avoid debt, build cash reserves, plan your generosity and plan your future – practical principals that have an outsized impact on your life.

Small, quiet acts

Whether the temptation is to abandon a free-falling market (like the one we encountered less than a year ago), or chase after winning streaks, an investor’s best move remains the same.  Concentrated bets on hot hands generate erratic outcomes, which makes them far closer to being dicey gambles than sturdy investments.  Trust instead in the durability of your carefully planned investment portfolio. Focus instead on small, quiet acts.  That is what we are here for, for example, to:  
  • – Remind you that your globally diversified portfolio already holds an appropriate allocation to Tesla stock (which may be a lot, a little, or none, depending on your financial goals.
 
  • – Guide you in rebalancing your portfolio if recent gains have overexposed it to market risks.
 
  • – Help you interpret the 5,600 pages of the newly passed Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, so you can manage your next financial moves accordingly.
 
  • – Assess potential ramifications of the Biden tax proposals and advise you on any additional defensive tax planning that may be warranted for you in the years ahead.
 
  •  -Remain by your side as you encounter whatever other challenges and opportunities 2021 has in store for you and your family.
  These are not loud acts that you will read about in the paper, but they are the stuff financial dreams are made of.  2021 will be interesting to say the least, but let’s hold onto the hope and possibility that a new year brings.  Stay healthy, stay grateful and know that we are here to help.   Josh, Mike, Matt and Sandra  

How will the CARES Act impact you?

There is a good chance that you have more unscheduled time these days as almost every state in the union moves to a stay-at-home orders, but have you used this extra time to read the full H.R. 748 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act?  If you would rather use this newly found time in other ways, here is a time-saving summary of the CARES Act looking at 9 different provisions that may impact you.  This is a longer post than normal, but is formatted so that you can scan through pretty quickly to sections that are more relevant to you.  If you have any questions whatsoever, please be in touch!

CARES Act In General

  • Direct payments/recovery rebates: Most Americans can expect to receive rebates from Uncle Sam. Depending on your household income, expect up to $1,200 per adult and $500 per dependent child. To calculate your payment, the Federal government will look at your 2019 Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) if it’s available, or your 2018 AGI if it’s not. However, you’ll receive an extra 2020 tax credit if your 2020 AGI ends up lower than the figure used to calculate your rebate. This Nerd’s Eye View illustration offers a great overview:

From Michael Kitces at Nerd’s Eye View; reprinted with permission
  • Retirement account distributions for coronavirus-related needs: You can tap into your retirement account ahead of time in 2020 for a coronavirus-related distribution of up to $100,000, without incurring the usual 10% penalty or mandatory 20% Federal withholding. Please note that this is not a waiver of income tax on the distributions, but does allow you to prorate the payment across 3 years. You also can repay distributions to your account within 3 years to avoid paying income taxes, or to claim a refund on taxes paid.  There are some landmines here so be careful to follow the rules exactly should you tap in to your 401k.

 

  • Various healthcare-related incentives: For example, certain over-the-counter medical expenses previously disallowed under some healthcare plans now qualify for coverage. This also allows for expanded use of tax free money from an HSA.  Also, Medicare restrictions have been relaxed for covering telehealth and other services (such as COVID-19 vaccinations, once they’re available). Other details apply.

 

CARES Act For Retirees (and Retirement Account Beneficiaries)

  • RMD relief: Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are taking a much needed break in 2020 for those meeting the new age requirements, as well as beneficiaries with inherited retirement accounts. If you’ve not yet taken your 2020 RMD, don’t!  Let’s talk about other options.  If you have taken a distribution, please be in touch quickly with us so that we can explore potential remedies.

 

CARES Act For Charitable Donors

  • “Above-the-line” charitable deductions: Deduct up to $300 in 2020 qualified charitable contributions (excluding Donor Advised Funds), even if you are taking a standard deduction.  Not much here, but it is worth noting to save a little bit in taxes.

 

  • Donate all of your 2020 AGI: You can effectively eliminate 2020 taxes owed, and then some, by donating up to, or beyond your AGI. If you donate more than your AGI, you can carry forward the excess up to 5 years.  One big caveat: Donor Advised Fund contributions are excluded.

 

CARES Act For Business Owners (and Certain Not-for-Profits)

  • Paycheck Protection Program loans (potentially forgivable): The Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is making loans available for qualified businesses and not-for-profits (typically under 500 employees), sole proprietors, and independent contractors. Loans for up to 2.5x monthly payroll, up to $10 million, 2-year maturity, interest rate 1%. Payments are deferred and, if certain employment retention and other requirements are met, the loan may be forgiven.  The program was set to open up today, April 3, but as of this writing, there is still much up in the air about the actual implementation.  If you haven’t already, touch base with your banker as soon as you can.

 

  • Economic Injury Disaster Loans (with forgivable advance): In coordination with your state, SBA disaster assistance also offers Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) of up to $2 million to qualified small businesses and non-profits, “to help overcome the temporary loss of revenue they are experiencing.” Interest rates are under 4%, with potential repayment terms of up to 30 years. Applicants also are eligible for an advance on the loan of up to $10,000. The advance will not need to be repaid, even if the loan is denied.

 

  • Payroll tax credits and deferrals: For qualified businesses who are not taking a loan.

 

  • Employee retention credit: An additional employee retention credit (as a payroll tax credit), “equal to 50 percent of the qualified wages with respect to each employee of such employer for such calendar quarter.” Excludes businesses receiving PPP loans, and may exclude those who have taken the EIDL loans.

 

  • Net Operating Loss rules relaxed: Carry back 2018–2020 losses up to five years, on up to 100% of taxable income from these same years.

 

  • Immediate expensing for qualified improvements: Section 168 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended to allow immediate expensing rather than multi-year depreciation.

 

  • Dollars set aside for industry-specific relief: Please be in touch for a more detailed discussion if your entity may be eligible for industry-specific relief (e.g., airlines, hospitals and state/local governments).

 

CARES Act For Employees/Plan Participants

  • Retirement plan loans and distributions: Maximum amount increased to $100,000 on up to the entire vested amount for coronavirus-related loans. Delay repayment up to a year for loans taken from March 27–year-end 2020. Distributions described above in In General.

 

  • Paid sick leave: Paid sick leave benefits for COVID-19 victims are described in the separate, March 18 R. 6201 Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and are above and beyond any benefits received through the CARES Act. Whether in your role as an employer or an employee, we’re happy to discuss the details with you upon request.

 

CARES Act For Employers/Plan Sponsors

  • Relief for funding defined benefit plans: Due date for 2020 funding is extended to Jan. 1, 2021. Also, the funding percentage (AFTAP) can be calculated based on your 2019 status.

 

  • Relief for facilitating pre-retirement plan distributions and expanded loans: As described above for Employees/Plan Participants, employers “may rely on an employee’s certification that the employee satisfies the conditions” to be eligible for relief. The participant is required to self-certify in writing that they or a direct dependent have been diagnosed, or they have been financially impacted by the pandemic. No additional evidence (such as a doctor’s release) is required.

 

  • Potential extension for filing Form 5500: While the Dept. of Labor (DOL) has not yet granted an extension, the CARES Act permits the DOL to postpone this filing deadline.

 

  • Exclude student loan pay-down compensation: Through year-end, employers can help employees pay off current educational expenses and/or student loan balances, and exclude up to $5,250 of either kind of payment from their income.  If you have a student loan, talk to your employer about this provision.  And also pay attention to the For Students section below.

 

CARES Act For Unemployed/Laid Off Americans

  • Increased unemployment compensation: Federal funding increases standard unemployment compensation by $600/week, and coverage is extended 13 weeks.  If you have lost your job, apply immediately.

 

  • Federal funding covers first week of unemployment: The one-week waiting period to start collecting benefits is waived.  Again, if you have lost your job, apply immediately.

 

  • Pandemic unemployment assistance: Unemployment coverage is extended to self-employed individuals for up to 39 weeks. Plus, the Act offers incentives for states to establish “short-time compensation programs” for semi-employed individuals.

 

CARES Act For Students

  • Student loan payments deferred to Sept. 30, 2020: No interest will accrue either. Important: Voluntary payments will continue unless you explicitly pause them. Plus, the deferral period will still count toward any loan forgiveness program you’re in. So, be sure to pause payments if this applies to you, lest you pay on debt that will ultimately be forgiven.

 

  • Delinquent debt collection suspended through Sept. 30, 2020: Including wage, tax refund, and other Federal benefit garnishments.

 

  • Employer-paid student loan repayments excluded from 2020 income: From the date of the CARES Act enactment through year-end, your employer can pay up to $5,250 toward your student debt or your current education without it counting as taxable income to you.

 

  • Pell Grant relief: There are several clauses that ease Pell Grant limits, while not eliminating them. It would be best if we go over these with you in person if they may apply to you.

 

CARES Act For Estates/Beneficiaries

  • A break for “non-designated” beneficiaries: 2020 can be ignored when applying the 5-year rule for “non-designated” beneficiaries with inherited retirement accounts. The 5-Year Rule effectively ends up becoming a 6-Year Rule for current non-designated beneficiaries.  This is still going to be tricky, so please contact us before taking any further distributions from an inherited retirement account.

 

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Now you are familiar with much of the critical content of the CARES Act! That said, given the complexities involved and unprecedented current conditions, there will undoubtedly be updates, clarifications, additions, system glitches, and other adjustments to these summary points. The results could leave a wide gap between intention and reality.  As such, before proceeding, please consult with us and other appropriate professionals, such as your accountant, and/or attorney on any details specific to you. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us with your questions and comments. We look forward to hearing from you soon!

 

 

Josh, Mike, Matt, and Sandra

 

 

Reference Materials:

How much do I need to save to retire?

July 17, 2018

We recently read a Wall Street Journal article called “Five Ways to Improve 401(k)s”, and thought one part of the article, “Raise the default savings rate,” was important enough to justify an entire blog post.  In the article, the author discusses the possibility of the federal government encouraging employers to set employees’ default savings rates higher in 401(k)s.  WSJ notes that many plans “set initial contribution rates under automatic enrollment at 3% [and]… gradually raise the level to 10%.”  The article then says that if instead, contribution rates began at 6% and rose to 15% over time, employees would be in much better shape at retirement.

An obvious question is, is this amount too much, too little, or just right?  Like most answers, it depends.  How many years do you have until you retire?  How much of your previous earnings were you spending?

Another important question to ask is, “What will it take to get there?”  Said another way, this question could be phrased, “How much do I need to save to retire?”  If you don’t know where the finish line is, you will never know when you cross it.

Introducing the Savings Rate

The good-news answer to this question is, regardless of whatever the federal government does with 401(k) rules, the largest single variable in this equation is under your control.  How much you save, as a percentage of your income, is the biggest contributor to the success or failure of your retirement plan.  The impact of your savings rate on your retirement plan outweighs the impact of higher returns.  And increasing your savings rate is much simpler and more reliable than chasing exceptional returns.

Of course, we can offer endless caveats to this insight.  The timing of your savings going into your retirement accounts, when the “good” return years happen, and what the returns environment is like when you begin to take distributions all figure into the probability of success or failure of the plan – basically whether you, the investor, ever run out of money or not.  When we run goal-projections for PLC Wealth’s clients, we will use a Monte Carlo simulation software to model the probabilities of various outcomes, but those results cannot be easily shown here.  For this article, we will make simplifying assumptions to illustrate the impact of savings rate.

Basic Assumptions

  1. The only variable we change is savings rate.
  2. We ignore inflation for salary and expenses, but apply it to the portfolio. All dollar-figures shown are 2018 dollars, and we use a 5% post-inflation rate of return for the portfolio.
  3. We ignore taxes in the distribution phase.
  4. We assume the investor can access his or her own or spousal accounts to save this much money in qualified accounts. Even if this last assumption was invalid, the impact of the higher savings rates is still valid even if the savings is done in taxable brokerage accounts.
  5. We assume 4% is a safe withdrawal rate in perpetuity (we know this assumption is debatable, but we believe this is a helpful jumping-off point).

The Data

Looking at these numbers, we can see where planners get their “save 10% – 15%” mantra.  Investors who set aside this amount of money, and receive Social Security, stand a very good chance of retiring successfully at age 65.  Additionally, if reported statistics are to be believed, a 10% – 15% savings rate is much higher than the national average.

Notice too that as you raise your savings rate in retirement accounts, the taxing authorities become your partners in growing your wealth.  Part of your increased savings is coming directly from tax savings, a fact most investors enjoy.

Raising the Savings Rate

Once families begin hitting savings rates of 20% or more, they put themselves in the position to retire early.  Or to downshift at some point in their career.  Or to make meaningful gifts to people and organizations they love.  Saving 30% of their income, this family lives on $36,851 per year.  After thirty-five years, they will have investments capable of supporting annual spending of $85,353 per year – a $48,502 annual income buffer!

In the 5% savings-rate analysis, increasing nominal portfolio returns to 12% results in a portfolio value of $881,718.  This portfolio should support about $35,269 in annual withdrawals.  A 12% expected return is unrealistic for financial planning projections.  And $35,269 per year is considerably lower than the $53,069 this family has been spending.  Investors are better served to increase their savings rate to 15% or 20% of your income (or even more), and to anticipate more realistic returns from your portfolio.  Then, if your investments do better than expected, you’ll have some extra money to enjoy or give away.

The Benefits of Raising the Savings Rate

As lifespans extend, “spending down” a portfolio until some anticipated terminal date is daunting.  With large enough investments and flexible consumption needs, a portfolio becomes a perpetual-motion machine.  With sufficient assets and flexible budgeting, your portfolio should continually generate returns that exceed your annual needs in perpetuity.  This is a very comfortable position as an investor or retiree.

When you consider your own situation, you may think, “But I don’t have thirty-five years left in my career!”, or, “I don’t have access to employer-sponsored retirement accounts!”  Nevertheless, the message to take to heart is: Increasing savings rate increases retirement security.  At PLC Wealth, we can help you work through the unique details of your personal situation.  In an article like this one, our goal is to raise awareness among investors of tools at their disposal to tilt the odds of retirement success in their favor.

In our experience, increasing your savings rate is the fuel for the fire of achieving and maintaining financial independence.  Savings rate rises when you invest more, pay off debt, or grow assets in a private business.  No matter where you put the money, it’s this elevated savings rate that can power you to financial independence.  It’s a rewarding journey and a worthwhile destination.  Happy Investing!