The Economic Landscape
If Q1 felt like driving into a headwind, Q2 was the stretch of open road that followed. Markets staged a powerful recovery, more than erasing the losses that rattled investors earlier in the year. For the quarter, the S&P 500 gained roughly 14.5%, the Nasdaq Composite surged approximately 19.7%, and the Dow advanced around 11%. Small-cap stocks were the quiet standout: the Russell 2000 returned approximately 20.8%, capping its strongest first half since 1991.
Importantly, the rally was not built on hype alone. S&P 500 companies reported first-quarter earnings growth of about 28% on revenue growth of nearly 12%, and market leadership broadened meaningfully, with Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Healthcare joining the conversation by late June. Inflation, however, remains elevated. The Consumer Price Index hit 4.2% on an annual basis in May – its highest since April 2023 – driven largely by energy costs. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, was more encouraging at just 0.2% for the month, suggesting the broader pass-through from the energy shock is still limited.
Making Sense of the Headlines
The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has been the dominant macro story of 2026, disrupting roughly one-fifth of the global oil trade and pushing average gasoline prices as high as $4.56 per gallon in May. By mid-June the picture shifted: the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to extend the ceasefire and begin reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil down roughly 20% from its 2026 peaks. That is real progress, though the situation remains fluid and a permanent deal is still being negotiated.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting – the fourth consecutive hold and the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The updated dot plot told the bigger story: half the committee now envisions at least one rate hike before year-end, a sharp reversal from March projections that still implied a cut. The Fed also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%, up from 2.7% just three months earlier. The message is clear: the central bank is not in a hurry to ease.
Staying the Course in a Noisy World
Wars, inflation, and Federal Reserve posturing are not comfortable topics. We know the headlines can feel heavy. But if the first half of 2026 has reinforced anything, it is that markets reward patience more than prediction.
In late March, after the worst of the oil-shock selloff, the S&P 500 had pulled back to around 6,344 – roughly 7% below where it began the year. Investors who stepped to the sidelines would have missed one of the sharpest quarterly recoveries in recent memory. Those who stayed invested, rebalanced, and leaned into the discomfort were rewarded with a double-digit rebound in a matter of weeks.
This is not a new lesson, but it is one worth revisiting in every market cycle. Volatility is not risk. Volatility is the price of admission to long-term compounding. Risk is permanently impairing your capital by abandoning your plan at the wrong time. We continue to believe that a disciplined, diversified approach – across asset classes, market capitalizations, and geographies – is the most reliable way to build and protect wealth over time.
Protecting What You Have Built
So much of our work together focuses on growing and investing your wealth. But the plans we build only work if the foundation underneath them is solid – and that brings us to a topic that does not get enough attention: your insurance coverage.
Summer is a natural time to review your property, auto, and umbrella policies. Home values, replacement costs, and liability exposures can shift meaningfully from year to year, and your coverage should reflect the life you are living today, not the life you were living when you last renewed. If you have not looked at your policies recently – or if you have questions about whether your umbrella coverage is adequate given changes to your net worth, real estate, or vehicle situation – we would love to help. Just reach out and we will walk through it together.
As always, we are grateful for the trust you place in our team. Half the year is in the books. There will be more headlines, more volatility, and more reasons to worry between now and December. But there will also be more reasons to be thankful – for the progress we have made together, for the plans we have built, and for the lives those plans are designed to support. We hope your summer is full of rest, adventure, and time with the people who matter most.
