Reflections on 2018 and the stock markets renewed volatility…

If you were a member of the popular press, you’d probably be happy with 2018’s first quarter performance. At last – some volatility fueling news1 in early February, with plenty of enticing “largest,” “fastest,” and “worst” market superlatives to savor after a long, languid lull.

As usual, there are plenty of potential culprits to point to among current events: global trade wars heating up, the arrival of quantitative tightening (rising interest rates), troubles in tech-land over data privacy concerns, ongoing Brexit talks, and some interesting events over in the Koreas. At quarter-end, one hopeful journalist asked, “Is the Bear Market Here Yet?2 Another observed: “[T]he number of [Dow Jones Industrial Average] sessions with a 1% move so far in 2018 are more than double 2017’s tally, and it isn’t even April.”3

Has the coverage left you wondering about your investments? Most markets have been steaming ahead so well for so long, even a modest misstep may have you questioning whether you should “do something,” in case the ride gets rougher still.

If we’ve done our job of preparing clients and their portfolio for market jitters, clients may might be able to cite back to us why they’ve already done all they can do to manage the volatility, and why it’s ultimately expected to be good news for evidence-based investors anyway. Remember, if there were never any real market risk, you couldn’t expect extra returns for your risk tolerance.

That said, you may have forgotten – or never experienced – how awful the last round of extreme volatility felt during the Great Recession. Insights from behavioral finance tell us that our brain’s ingrained biases cause us to gloss over those painful times, and panic all over again when they recur, long before our rational resolve has time to kick in.

If you noticed the news, but you’re okay with where you’re at, that’s great. If the volatility is bothering you, talk to a CFP® professional or other qualified financial professional; it may help ease your angst. If you continue to struggle with whether you made the right decisions during quieter markets, plan a rational shift to better reflect your real risk tolerances and cash-flow requirements. Not only is your peace of mind at least as important as the dollars in your account, you could end up worse off if you’ve taken on more risk than you can bear in pursuit of higher expected returns.

As Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig said during the February dip: “A happy few investors … may have long-term thinking built into them by nature. The rest of us have to cultivate it by nurture.”  We couldn’t agree more, and we consider it our duty and privilege to advise you accordingly, through every market hiccup.

The market isn’t misbehaving, people are…

If we’ve been doing our job as your fiduciary advisor, you might already be able to guess what our take is on current market news: Unless your personal goals have changed, stay the course according to your personal plan. Have you checked your plan progress in the last couple of days?  If not, you should.

Still it never hurts to repeat this steadfast advice during periodic market downturns. We understand that thinking about scary markets isn’t the same as experiencing them.  No matter what happens next, context is always helpful to better understand what is happening around you.  This article today by Neil Irwin in the New York Times does a great job of giving context.

Good news is bad news?

So, what’s going on? Why did U.S. stock prices suddenly drop after such a long, lazy lull, with no obvious calamity to have set off the alarms?  As Financial Planning guest columnist Kimberly Foss, CFP® described: “To understand the anxiety that led to many investors rushing to sell last week, you need to follow some tortuous logic. … If American workers are getting paid more, then companies will start charging more for whatever they produce or do, which might boost inflation. Might’ is the operative word.”

“Good news, it seems, is bad news again,” this Wall Street Journal columnist added.

Context and Action

While these sentiments may suggest the catalyst for the current drop, they do not inform us of what will happen next. Sometimes, market setbacks are over and forgotten in days. Other times, they more sorely test our resolve with their length and severity. As Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal pointed out yesterday, ‘The stock market didn’t get tested – You did.’  You must understand that the four most expensive words in finance are, ‘This time it’s different.’  We can’t yet know how current events will play out, but we do know this:

1) The (US) stock market goes up more than it goes down. Do you see now why we emphasize the wisdom of long-term?2) Capital markets have exhibited an upward trajectory over the long-term, yielding positive, inflation-beating returns to those who have stayed put for the ride.

3) If you instead try to time your optimal market exit and entry points, you’ll have to be correct twice to expect to come out ahead; you must get out and back in at the right times.

4) Every trade, whether it works or not, costs real money.

5) Volatility creates opportunity for the long-term investor.

For a longer explanation of #5, see my post from just last week on Strategic Rebalancing.  In short, the stock market roller coaster is too unsettling for some investors, who sell when they experience a market lurch.  Don’t be ‘that guy.’  However, this does give long-term investors a valuable—and frequent—opportunity to buy stocks on sale.  That, in turn, lowers the average cost of the stocks in your portfolio, which can be a boost to your long-term returns.

Ignore the Hype

Please, please, please be smarter than the marketers.  Be wary of hyperbolic headlines bearing superlatives such as “the biggest plunge since …” While the numbers may be technically accurate, they are framed to frighten rather than enlighten you, grabbing your attention at the expense of the more boring news on how to simply remain a successful, long-term investor.  And they have absolutely nothing to do with whether your personal financial plan is still on track.  (Not sure if your plan is on track or not?  Send me an email here and I would be happy to talk to you about the tools we use to help answer this question on a daily basis.)

Instead of fretting over meaningless milestones or trying to second-guess what U.S. economics might do to stocks, bonds and inflation, we believe the more important point is this: Market corrections are normal – and essential to generating expected long-term returns.  In short, before you consider changing course if the markets continue to decline, of course we hope you’ll be in touch with us first.  Oh, and turn off the TV.

What do the tea leaves say today?

If you’ve taken our past advice about ignoring the onslaught of breaking market news, you probably didn’t read Russell Investments’ recent “2017 Global Market Outlook Q4 Update.”

I’m not prone to pore over these relatively unremarkable analyses ourselves, but I do read a lot of ‘industry speak’ as part of our due diligence. More times than not, it for purely entertainment purposes to see what the tea leaves say on that particular day.  This is how I came across this intriguing statement in Russell Investments’ wrap-up:

“Our main message for the close of 2017 isn’t much different from our opening one: we maintain our ‘buy the dips and sell the rallies’ mantra.”

Great idea, but a little weak on practical application. It’s akin to suggesting that lottery players can score big … as long as they consistently pick the winning numbers!

Immediately following Russell Investments’ mantra, you’ll find this disclosure:

“These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.”

In all seriousness, I feel these sorts of reports speak inadvertent volumes about the evidence-based mantra to which we adhere.  If you are not familiar with this term evidence-based investing, be on the lookout as I will be writing more about this soon. It is a main tenant to the way we view and implement investment strategies.  By depending on practical evidence instead of fanciful forecasts, our views are rarely subject to change – especially not in hurried reaction to current market conditions.

Instead, we continue to believe the best way to manage your personal wealth is to:

  • Stay laser focused on your bigger picture…are you on track to achieve your goals. Buy, sell and rebalance your portfolio according to your own carefully crafted plans.
  • Focus on an efficient, evidence-based approach to capturing the market’s durable returns while managing its related risks.
  • Ignore the market’s daily distractions, especially its fleeting dips and rallies; they’re far more likely to block the view toward your higher goals than to yield big wins through the chase.

This is our mantra, and so it shall remain – regardless of the date at the top of the page.

Growing Wealth: Not for the faint of heart

In life, it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees.

Money is a great servant but a bad master. Francis Bacon

Joshua E. Self, CLU, ChFC, CFP®

June 9th, 2017

How many of us plan, save, and invest for the future, anticipating that one day we’ll get to a point of enjoying our wealth? And all along the way, we find our personal lives, family lives, and financial lives becoming increasingly complicated, taking more of our time, not less?

How often have we heard of or been directly affected ourselves, by the unexpected and untimely illness, disability, or death of those we know and love? It is a fact of life: No one makes it out alive. On the other hand, if both a husband and wife live to be sixty-five years old, 50% of the time, one individual from that couple will live 30 more years! Without knowing the future, how do we live our lives to the fullest today, while still being good to our future selves?

We’ll tackle these challenges in three parts. First, be good to today’s you and to future you. Second, give serious consideration to lowering your financial goals – or at least pause to ponder the motivation for the money goals you have set for yourself. Third, get help to manage your growing wealth and your shrinking time.

Part one: Make sure it’s good for both of us – today’s you and future you

We often sense tension between preparing for an uncertain future and enjoying today. On the one hand, when you get right down to it, today is really the only time we have. On the other hand, we know that we desire to care for those we love and for ourselves in the future. How do we resolve this tension?

The answer to that question is a good-news-bad-news story. First the bad news: We can’t resolve this tension. Now the good news: There are some really important things we can do to live well with this tension.

The one and only you

First of all, as you consider where to spend your time and money, consider those things that only you can do. Only you can call your mom. Only you can be a husband or wife to your spouse. Only you can be a father or mother to your children, or a good friend, or a good neighbor to the people in your life. Only you can run your business or do your job just the way you do it. Never trade away the things that only you can do.

There are things that other people can do for you, and if you can afford it, you should consider trading dollars for time so you can invest back in the opportunities that are unique to you. The perennial favorite outsourced task for dusty husbands everywhere (or at least in the southeast) is lawn care, but you can expand your thinking from here. Your assistant (virtual or otherwise) can help you with your e-mail and calendar. Amazon can help you with your shopping. A Roomba can help keep your floors clean while you sleep.

Stay healthy!

Next, care for your health. It costs very little money (in some cases it saves money) to exercise and eat the right amount of healthy food. Caring for your personal health is one of the highest return-on-investment activities you can do. And it’s one of the best things you can do for your future quality of life.

Shred your excuses in this area. Can’t work out because you don’t want to join a club or gym? Running, cycling, pushups, sit-ups, and stretching are free in America. Can’t get exercise during the workday because you don’t want to sweat at work? Walk or do the stairs – just get up and move. Track your steps and challenge yourself to hit the 10,000 mark Monday through Friday. Can’t eat “healthy food” at a restaurant? Order the side salad and a cup of soup; substitute water for sweet tea; eat only half of the cheeseburger and box the rest for tomorrow! There’s always a way to hit your goal if you want it enough.

Flip the script in your mind from “I can’t” to “How can I?” And here’s more great news – none of these things we’ve just discussed costs very much money at all. It’s a triple-win strategy: Better life now, better life later, and more wealth for future you.

A strategy for spending

But what about things that do cost money in the present, and so will, by arithmetic, reduce your future wealth? Many times we’re not as clueless on this topic as we pretend we are. We have lived our lives up to this point and can reflect on our past expenditures and ask ourselves whether they delivered the enjoyment we expected for the money we spent. And, if we’ll meter our consumption over time, we can probably afford everything we want anyway.

For example, if you have a family goal to take a particular trip with your children or grandchildren while they’re school-aged, there are only certain years when you can get this done. By contrast, your kitchen remodel, unless you are no longer able to prepare food in your kitchen due to a fire or flood, can be deferred until the kids are older. Under this scenario, you can enjoy the trip now, look forward to your kitchen remodel later, and get both done over time.

Try this thought experiment: For any expenditure at a particular time, project yourself into the future and look back on what you spent. Are you delighted, indifferent, or disappointed with the decision? If you’re delighted, and if you have the money, go for it. If you’re indifferent, wait until your thoughts become clear. If you’re annoyed with yourself that you parted with your dollars, just say No.

Part two: Ask why

Toddlers are famous for asking “Why?” As a parent, I’ll agree they take this question to extremes, but as adults we can become complacent and ask this question too seldom. For example, if you’ve set a net worth goal of $5M (or $2M or $10M), take a moment and ask, “Why?” Is it because it sounds good to you? Is it because you’ve used some analysis and determined this is the amount you need to replace your current income? Have you considered that it is actually your spending (plus inflation), not your income that you need to replace in retirement? Does this fact suggest anything to you?

Remember, for everything you get, you give up something else. Every hour you work in your job or business is an hour not spent on something else. Every dollar you invest for tomorrow is not spent on something today.

Enough is enough

Imagine a couple celebrating their wedding anniversary at a special spot. The tab for two is almost $500. However, they are prepared for this, and the dining experience was a deliberate decision (in fact, a family member had given them a gift certificate!). Here’s more about that fabulous meal: The couple was at the restaurant for four hours and consumed enough calories to last at least one full day, along with an entire bottle of wine. The children stayed home with a sitter (more money!). It was a lovely and truly memorable evening.

But would you want to spend four hours at a restaurant even once a month, let alone several times each week? If you ate like that very often, you’d soon be overweight. A glass of wine is nice, and more is nice on a special occasion, but that level of alcohol consumption on a regular basis doesn’t help your future self. And, as crazy as they are, you probably enjoy sharing supper with your children.

In this lengthy podcast, Joshua Sheats does a terrific job telling the story of why lowering your financial goals can be a big help for your life, both now and in the future. Whether you accept all the assumptions or not, listen carefully as he reads about the different budgets based on different levels of wealth, and ask yourself whether a higher level of consumption in the future is actually what you want.

How much you need depends on how much you spend

Next, as I alluded above, it is not actually your current income that you need to replace in the future. It is your inflation-adjusted spending that must be replaced by your investments.

Two insights leap from this fact: First, you must know what your spending is in order to know what you need to replace. This implies some form of budgeting or tracking of your expenditures. Second, you’re in the driver’s seat on how much you spend in every category of your budget. If you want to be financially independent sooner, reducing your expenses is the way to go.  Henry David Thoreau told us “that man is richest whose pleasures are cheapest.”

How much will ‘future you’ be able to utilize from the assets that you have accumulated? This can only be prudently answered in the context of your total financial plan. There are a number of ‘rules of thumb’ you could use, but these are not able to consider all of the nuances and variants of your financial plan, so talk to your financial planner about this.  Some food for thought to help you prepare for the conversation can be found here and here.

Part Three: Get help

You may not consider yourself wealthy, but the fact that you are reading this article means that you are probably in the top quartile of income earners or asset gatherers…you have wealth or the ability to create it. Just because you don’t live ostentatiously doesn’t mean that you are not wealthy.

The wealthy, and those who will become wealthy, have a team of advisers. Roughly speaking these advisers can be broken into two groups. The first group contains those with unique knowledge of you and of life in general – your spouse, adult children, parents, closest friends, and perhaps a mastermind or industry group of which you’re a part. The second group of advisers has specialized domain expertise and includes estate and corporate attorneys, CPAs, and CFP’s.

According to Tom Stanley, whose research on millionaires is unsurpassed, the truly wealthy have a low propensity to spend on high-status items like cars, clothes, and watches, but are willing to part with their carefully husbanded dollars to get the right advice on their taxes, contracts, and financial plan. The number one ranked activity shared by decamillionaires, engaged in by 85% of survey respondents within the past year? Consulting with tax experts! (The Millionaire Mind, page 374).

As you accumulate wealth and your financial life becomes more complex, keeping good relationships with both your informal and formal team of advisers will help you make wise decisions and maintain and grow what you’ve worked so hard to build. “In an abundance of counselors there is safety.” Proverbs 11:14.

Conclusion

As you grow in your life and your wealth, there is a genuine risk of missing the forest for the trees. You are accumulating wealth at least in part in the hope of enjoying it in the future. It is critically important that you take the steps today not only to grow your wealth for the future, but to celebrate and enjoy the journey from here to financial independence.

Along the way, embrace the tension of caring for both today’s you and the future you. Ask why you’re aiming for your particular financial goals (and take a good look at expenses – are they delivering for you the way you want?). Finally, get the help you need in every area of your life, including your financial life, to make the best decisions you can. Death and taxes are the only guarantees.  But there are many, many things we can do to stack the odds of a joyful life now, and financial independence in the future, in our favor.

Post Election Letter to Client

Do you remember what I wrote earlier this year in June after the historic Brexit vote in Great Britain? In light of our own historic vote in the US yesterday, I think I could cut and paste every word and it would still be as relevant as it was then. Winston Churchill rings in my ears yet again, reminding us that “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” We do not have a perfect system to elect our officials, but it is the system we have had for generations that has allowed for a peaceful transfer of power since the beginning of our young nation. And it worked again. It worked in the sense that, regardless of which side of the ticket you voted for and supported, we have a system that gives us a voice in the outcome of the formation of the government that is in place to represent us. This is no small feat and cannot be overstated. But make no mistake about it…presidents do not make this a great nation that we live in, people do. We have always been a nation with some pretty incredible people, so that give me encouragement.

Do you know what else I said in June? “Any conclusions around what these new trades deals (insert ‘this new presidency’) will look like and the impact on global economies is purely speculation at this point.” Make no mistake about it, the volatility in the futures markets overnight shows that investors are still looking for details on plans and policies. As those come out, likely within the new President’s first 100 days, the markets will digest it and move on.

So what does this mean for global stock markets and your money? In the long term, probably not much. In the short term, probably more volatility than we have seen in recent months. Historically, markets are pretty much impossible to predict in the short term. People have tried to predict and failed for years, and other will continue to try and fail. In the long term (and we are talking 10+ years), however, they tend to behave pretty consistently. And what does that behavior look like? Stocks do better than bonds, and both tend to grow over time. No matter what is going on in the short term, if you are going to have a successful financial life plan and achieve your goals, you have to get compound interest working for you. And the way you do that is to get in the game and stay in the game.

Am I saying that you should do nothing? No, not at all. I may sound like a broken record here, but you have to look at volatility, especially larger than normal volatility, as a unique opportunity to buy good, long term investments while they are on sale. I will be spending time today going through client accounts to see if there is excess cash that should be utilized to buy any short term dip, if there is a dip. These strategic rebalances add value over time. Interestingly enough, even though the media was quick to highlight that US stock futures were down overnight over 5% (at one point, signaling an opening worse than the day after 9/11), as I review the S&P 500 index right now at noon EST, it is UP almost 1%! That is a dramatic turn around, but highlights that, friends…don’t pay attention to what the media is trying to sell you. They sell fear, and fear is not a good partner when it comes to planning or investments.

Should you make any other changes to your financial life plan or investment strategies? No, probably not. When it comes to money, the best thing you can do for yourself in most cases is exactly nothing. Don’t take the bait that in front of you from so many different angles…the media, friends, family. Don’t make drastic changes you will live to regret later. Don’t get too emotionally tied in to what you see on the news. Emotions can make terrible decisions. When you hear that little voice trying to amp up the fear in your head, drowned it out with truth. The truth is that you are still ok…stick to the plan that you made during calmer days. You have to remember to control what you can control. This is why I harp so much on making a plan that maps out your goals and puts you on a path to achieve things that are most important to you. Buying in to the fear found in the day to day does not help you one ounce to harness your wealth to live your great financial life.

All of this is a wonderful reminder to make sure you have a plan that matches your values with your money. This is where you play in the realm of controlling what you can control. Can you control the Return on Investment (ROI) that you get from day to day? No, you can’t, and neither can I! The markets will provide the return that the markets provide…your job is to stay invested so that you can capture 100% of that. I want you to focus on achieving your maximum Return on Life (ROL) and you do this by having a thoughtful, well-designed plan that matches your money and your values. ROL trumps (excuse the play on words) ROI any day of the week because ROL means you are moving towards goals that are meaningful to you and impact the lives of those around you. That is what truly matters and can be accomplished no matter who gets elected as president. If you are not sure if you are on track or haven’t looked at your plan lately, get in touch with me and we’ll make sure you are controlling the things that you can control.

Stay calm, friends…

Josh

On Brexit

“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

 

It’s ironic to me that this quote is associated with Winston Churchill, considering all the going’s on in the last 24 hours within his home land.  As you no doubt have heard, the unlikely occurred and voters in the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union after 43 years of membership.  The uncertainty that this casts on economies around the globe has caused stock, currency and even some bond markets to behave erratically today.  

 What I want you to know is that all is not lost, the sky is not falling, and the world as we have known it is not over.  I walked out of the house the morning for an early morning run, and you know what I heard?  The same thing I hear on every other morning…the birds were alive and chirping, the wind blowing through the trees which had been replenished with an overnight rain, and oxygen still filled my lungs just like it has on every other day.  It reminded me that we have to concern ourselves with things that we can control, and remove worry around events that we have no control over.  Brexit is one of later mold.   

 What does this mean for you and me?

The fact is I don’t know…no one does.  There is so much still yet to be determined.  The voters have made their voice known.  Now it is up to Parliament to move forward and negotiate the details of their wishes.  There will be months, if not years, of new negotiations between the UK and the EU and other trade partners.  Any conclusions around what these new trades deals will look like and the impact on global economies is purely speculation at this point.  But the fear and uncertainty in the ultimate conclusion is exactly why markets are behaving so erratically today, and probably for some days to come.  The value declines do not mean that the markets think the world is collapsing…it just means that they don’t know what is going to happen, so ‘traders’ are acting on emotion, fear and possibly greed.  These are never good ingredients for a long term investor’s strategy.  But I do know that this vote should not change the course of your long term plan.

 Trader vs. Investor

A trader is actively trying to time the market, moving in and out of investments based on one data point or another.  The research shows this has never been a consistent winning strategy over time.  An investor follows along with Warren Buffett’s favorite holding period for investments: forever.  Be an investor, not a trader.  I think Warren knows what he’s talking about.

 What should you do?

The best thing you can do for your self is exactly nothing.  Short term market movements do not change the course of your long term plan.  Remind yourself where you stand in regards to your long term goals.  Log in to our planning site, MoneyGuidePro, and see if your progress towards your goals has changed at all. [Note: if you do not yet have a financial plan built, let us know sooner than later.  This tool is extremely important to ensure that you are getting the maximum return on life (ROL) and always moving towards your goals.  This is much more important than worrying about your return on investments (ROI)] I assure you that your probability of your plan success has not changed.  The reason is that the probability calculation takes in to account the possibility of wild short-term (and even mid-term) volatility already!  

 Volatility = Opportunity

You have heard this from me before…where there is fear and volatility in the short term, there is opportunity to buy things on sale for the long term investor.  We are always looking to see if volatility in certain asset classes creates enough skewing in a portfolio to provide a strategic rebalancing opportunity.  This pays dividends in the long run.  If you have cash that you have considered investing, pay attention.  If the volatility continues, you will have a unique opportunity to buy a good, long term asset at a discount.  

 Let me reiterate again…the best thing you can do for yourself is exactly nothing.  If your portfolio has been allocated correctly based on your time horizon and your risk tolerance, you are still on the right course.  Turn off the TV, ignore the pundits, and look around you…the air still fills your lungs too, just like it did yesterday, and the sun still rose the same this morning as every other day.  Life is good, so enjoy your weekend. We are always here to talk, so do not hesitate to call or email with any questions.  

 Josh