The market isn’t misbehaving, people are…

If we’ve been doing our job as your fiduciary advisor, you might already be able to guess what our take is on current market news: Unless your personal goals have changed, stay the course according to your personal plan. Have you checked your plan progress in the last couple of days?  If not, you should.

Still it never hurts to repeat this steadfast advice during periodic market downturns. We understand that thinking about scary markets isn’t the same as experiencing them.  No matter what happens next, context is always helpful to better understand what is happening around you.  This article today by Neil Irwin in the New York Times does a great job of giving context.

Good news is bad news?

So, what’s going on? Why did U.S. stock prices suddenly drop after such a long, lazy lull, with no obvious calamity to have set off the alarms?  As Financial Planning guest columnist Kimberly Foss, CFP® described: “To understand the anxiety that led to many investors rushing to sell last week, you need to follow some tortuous logic. … If American workers are getting paid more, then companies will start charging more for whatever they produce or do, which might boost inflation. Might’ is the operative word.”

“Good news, it seems, is bad news again,” this Wall Street Journal columnist added.

Context and Action

While these sentiments may suggest the catalyst for the current drop, they do not inform us of what will happen next. Sometimes, market setbacks are over and forgotten in days. Other times, they more sorely test our resolve with their length and severity. As Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal pointed out yesterday, ‘The stock market didn’t get tested – You did.’  You must understand that the four most expensive words in finance are, ‘This time it’s different.’  We can’t yet know how current events will play out, but we do know this:

1) The (US) stock market goes up more than it goes down. Do you see now why we emphasize the wisdom of long-term?2) Capital markets have exhibited an upward trajectory over the long-term, yielding positive, inflation-beating returns to those who have stayed put for the ride.

3) If you instead try to time your optimal market exit and entry points, you’ll have to be correct twice to expect to come out ahead; you must get out and back in at the right times.

4) Every trade, whether it works or not, costs real money.

5) Volatility creates opportunity for the long-term investor.

For a longer explanation of #5, see my post from just last week on Strategic Rebalancing.  In short, the stock market roller coaster is too unsettling for some investors, who sell when they experience a market lurch.  Don’t be ‘that guy.’  However, this does give long-term investors a valuable—and frequent—opportunity to buy stocks on sale.  That, in turn, lowers the average cost of the stocks in your portfolio, which can be a boost to your long-term returns.

Ignore the Hype

Please, please, please be smarter than the marketers.  Be wary of hyperbolic headlines bearing superlatives such as “the biggest plunge since …” While the numbers may be technically accurate, they are framed to frighten rather than enlighten you, grabbing your attention at the expense of the more boring news on how to simply remain a successful, long-term investor.  And they have absolutely nothing to do with whether your personal financial plan is still on track.  (Not sure if your plan is on track or not?  Send me an email here and I would be happy to talk to you about the tools we use to help answer this question on a daily basis.)

Instead of fretting over meaningless milestones or trying to second-guess what U.S. economics might do to stocks, bonds and inflation, we believe the more important point is this: Market corrections are normal – and essential to generating expected long-term returns.  In short, before you consider changing course if the markets continue to decline, of course we hope you’ll be in touch with us first.  Oh, and turn off the TV.

Cryptocurrency…what’s all the buzz about?

Have you caught cryptocurrency fever, or are you at least wondering what it’s all about? Odds are, you hadn’t even heard the term until recently. Now, it seems as if everybody and their cousin are getting in on it.

 

Psychologists have assigned a term to the angst you might be feeling in the heat of the moment. It’s called “FoMO” or Fear of Missing Out. Education is the best first step toward facing FoMO and making informed financial choices that are right for you. So before you make any leaps, let’s take a closer look.

 

What is cryptocurrency?

Crytpocurrency is essentially a kind of money – or currency. Thanks to electronic security – or encryption – it exists in a presumably secure, sound and limited supply. Pair the “encryption” with the “currency,” and you’ve got a new kind of digital asset, or electronic exchange.

 

Well, sort of new. Cryptocurrency was introduced in 2009, supposedly by a fellow named Satoshi Nakamoto. His Wikipedia entry suggests he may not actually be who he says he is, but minor mysteries aside, he (or possibly “they”) is credited with designing and implementing

bitcoin as the first and most familiar cryptocurrency. Ethereum is currently its second-closest competitor, with plenty of others vying for space as well (more than 1,300 as of early December 2017), and plenty more likely to come.

 

Unlike a dollar bill or your pocket change, cryptocurrency exists strictly as computer code. You can’t touch it or feel it. You can’t flip it, heads or tails. But increasingly, holders are receiving, saving and spending their cryptocurrency in ways that emulate the things you can do with “regular” money.

 

How does cryptocurrency differ from “regular” money?

In comparing cryptocurrency to regulated fiat currency – or most countries’ legal tender – there are a few observations of note.

First, since neither fiat nor cryptocurrency are still directly connected to the value of an underlying commodity like gold or silver, both must have another way to maintain their spending power in the face of inflation.

 

For legal tender, most countries’ central banks keep their currency’s spending power relatively stable. For cryptocurrency, there is no central bank, or any other centralized repository or regulator. Its stability is essentially backed by the strength of its underlying ledger, or blockchain, where balances and transactions are verified and then publicly reported.

 

The notion of limited supply factors in as well. Obviously, if everyone had an endless supply of money, it would cease to have any value to anyone. That’s why central banks (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England) are in charge of stabilizing the value of their nation’s legal tender, regularly seeking to limit supply without strangling demand.

 

While cryptocurrency fans offer explanations for how its supply and demand will be managed, it’s not yet known how effective the processes will be in sustaining this delicate balance, especially when exuberance- or panic-driven runs might outpace otherwise orderly procedures. (If you’re technically inclined and you’d like to take a deep dive into how the financial technology operates, here’s one source to start with.)

 

Why would anyone want to use cryptocurrency instead of legal tender?  

For anyone who may not be a big fan of government oversight, the processes are essentially driven “by and for the people” as direct peer-to-peer exchanges with no central authorities in charge. At least in theory, this is supposed to allow the currency to flow more freely, with less regulation, restriction, taxation, fee extraction, limitations and similar machinations. Moreover, cryptocurrency transactions are anonymous.

 

If the world were filled with only good, honest people, cryptocurrency and its related technologies could represent a better, more “boundary-less” system for more freely doing business with one another, with fewer of the hassles associated with international commerce.

Unfortunately, in real life, this sort of unchecked exchange can also be used for all sorts of mischief – like dodging taxes, laundering money or funding terrorism, to name a few.

 

In short, cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and/or their next-generations could evolve into universal tools with far wider application. Indeed, such explorations already are under way. In December 2017, Vanguard announced collaborative efforts to harness blockchain technology for improved index data sharing.

 

That said, many equally promising prospects have ended up discarded in the dustbin of interesting ideas that might have been. Time will tell which of the many possibilities that might happen actually do.

 

Even if I don’t plan to use cryptocurrency, should I hold some as an investment? 

If you do jump in at this time, know you are more likely speculating than investing.

 

Bubble or not, consider these two points. First, there are a lot of risks inherent to the cryptocurrency craze. Second, cryptocurrency simply doesn’t fit into our principles of evidence-based investing … at least not yet.

 

Let’s take a look at the risks.

 

Regulatory Risks – First, there’s the very real possibility that governments may decide to pile mountains of regulatory road blocks in front of this currently free-wheeling freight train. Some countries have already banned cryptocurrency. Others may require extra reporting or onerous taxes. These and other regulations could severely impact the liquidity and value of your coinage.

 

Security Risks – There’s also the ever-present threat of being pickpocketed by cyberthieves. It’s already happened several times, with millions of dollars of value swiped into thin air. Granted, the same thing can happen to your legal tender, but there is typically far more government protection and insurance coverage in place for your regulated accounts.

 

Technological Risks – As we touched on above, a system that was working pretty well in its development days has been facing some serious scaling challenges. As demand races ahead of supply, the human, technical and electric capital required to keep everything humming along is under stress. One recent post estimated that if bitcoin technology alone continues to grow apace, by February 2020, it will suck away more electricity than the entire world uses today.

 

That’s a lot of potential buzzkill for your happily-ever-after bitcoin holdings, and one reason you might want to think twice before you pile your life’s savings into them.

 

Then again, every investment carries some risk. If there were no risk, there’d be no expected return. That’s why we also need to address what evidence-based investing looks like. It begins with how investors (versus speculators) evaluate the markets.

 

What’s a bitcoin worth? A dollar? $100? $100,000? The answer to that has been one of the most volatile bouncing balls the market has seen since tulip mania in the 1600s.

 

In his ETF.com column “Bitcoin & Its Risks,” financial author Larry Swedroe summarizes how market valuations occur. “With stocks,” he says, “we can look at valuation metrics, like earnings yield. With bonds, we can use the current yield-to-maturity. And with assets like reinsurance or lending … we have historical evidence to make the appropriate estimates.”

 

You can’t do any of these things with cryptocurrency. Swedroe explains: “There simply is no tangible relationship between any economic or financial parameters and bitcoin prices.” Instead, there are several ways buying cryptocurrency differs from investing:

 

  • Evidence-based investing calls for estimating an asset’s expected return, based on these kinds of informed fundamentals.
  • Evidence-based investing also calls for us to factor in how different asset classes interact with one another. This helps us fit each piece into a unified portfolio that we can manage according to individual goals and risk tolerances.
  • Evidence-based investing calls for a long-term, buy, hold and rebalance strategy.

 

Cryptocurrency simply doesn’t yet synch well with these parameters. It does have a price, but it can’t be effectively valued for planning purposes, especially amidst the extreme price swings we’re seeing of late.

 

What if I decide to buy some cryptocurrency anyway?

We get it. Even if it’s far more of a speculative than investment endeavor, you may still decide to give cryptocurrency a go, for fun or potential profit. If you do, here are some tips to consider:

 

  • Think of it as being on par with an entertaining trip to the casino. Nothing ventured, nothing gained – but don’t venture any more than you can readily afford to lose!
  • Use only “fun money,” outside the investments you’re managing to fund your ongoing lifestyle.
  • Educate yourself first, and try to pick a reputable platform from which to play. (CoinDesk offers a pretty good bitcoin primer.)
  • If you do strike it rich, regularly remove a good chunk of the gains off the table to invest in your managed portfolio. That way, if the bubble bursts, you won’t lose everything you’ve “won.” (Also set aside enough to pay any taxes that may be incurred.)

 

Last but not least, good luck. Whether you win or lose a little or a lot with cryptocurrency – or you choose to only watch it from afar for now – we remain available to assist with your total wealth, come what may.

 

 

10 Practices for the New Year

Happy New Year! Now that 2017 is a wrap, one of the best presents you can bestow on yourself and your loved ones is the gift of proper preparation for rest of the year. Want to get a jump-start on it? Here are 10 financial best practices to energize your wealth management efforts.

  1. Save today for a better retirement tomorrow. Are you maxing out pre-tax contributions to your company retirement plan? Taking full advantage of your and your spouse’s company retirement plans is an important, tax-advantaged way to save for retirement, especially if your employer matches some of your contributions with “extra” money. And, by the way, if you are 50 or older, you may be able to make additional “catch-up contributions” to your plan, to further accelerate your retirement-ready investing.
  2. Verify your valuables are still covered. Most households have insurance: home, auto, life … maybe disability and/or umbrella. But when is the last time you’ve checked to see if these policies remain right for you? Over time, it’s easy to end up with gaps or overlaps, like too much or not enough coverage, deductibles that warrant a fresh take, or beneficiaries who need to be added or removed. If you’ve not performed an insurance “audit” recently, there’s no time like the present to cross this one off your list.
  3. Get a grip on your debt load. Investment returns will only take you so far if excessive debt is weighing you down. Prioritize paying down high-interest credit cards and similar high-cost debt first, and at least meeting minimums on the rest. You may also want to revisit whether you still hold the best credit cards for your circumstances. Do the interest rates, incentives, protections and other perks still reflect your needs? Ditto on that for your home loan.
  4. Check up on your credit reports. Speaking of those credit cards, have you been periodically requesting your free annual credit report from each of the three primary credit reporting agencies? Be sure to use annualcreditreport.com for this purpose, as it’s the only federally authorized source for doing so. By staggering your requests – submitting to one agency every fourth months – you can keep an ongoing eye on your credit, which seems especially important in the wake of last summer’s Equifax breach.
  5. Get a bead on your budget. How much did you spend in 2017? How much do you intend to spend in the year ahead? After current spending, can you still afford to fund your future plans? Do you have enough set aside in a rainy day fund to cover the inevitable emergencies? These days, there are apps available to help you answer these important questions. Mint.com is one such popular app.
  6. Get ready for tax time … with a twist. While income tax reform looms large in the U.S., the changes won’t apply to 2017 taxes (due by April 17, 2018). There now may be tax planning opportunities or challenges to consider as the new laws take effect in 2018. You may want to fire up those tax-planning engines on the early side this time around.
  7. Give your investments a good inspection. Where do you stand with your personal wealth? Have you got an investment strategy to see you through? Does your portfolio reflect your personal goals and risk tolerances? If you experienced strong growth in 2017, is it time to lock in some of those gains by rebalancing your portfolio to its original mix? While investment management is a marathon of patient perspective rather than a short-sighted sprint of mad dashes, a new year makes this as good a time as any to review the terrain.
  8. Ensure your estate plans are current. Do you have wills and/or trusts in place for you and your loved ones? If so, when is the last time you took a look at them? Your family may have experienced births, deaths, marriagies or divorces. Dependants may have matured. You may have acquired or sold business interests, and added new assets or let go of old ones. Your original intentions may have changed, or government regulations may have changed them for you. For all these reasons and more, it’s worth revisiting your estate plans annually.
  9. Have a look at your healthcare directives. As healthcare becomes increasingly complex, advance directives (living wills) play an increasingly vital role in ensuring your healthcare wishes are met should you be unable to express them when the need arises. Don’t leave your loved ones unaware of and/or unable to act on your critical-care or end-of-life preferences. If you don’t already have a strong living will in place, Aging with Dignity’s Five Wishes is one helpful place to learn more.
  10. Give your newly adult children the gift of continued care. Have any of your children turned 18 recently? You may send them off to college or a career, assuming you can still be there for them should an emergency arise. Be forewarned! If you don’t have the legal paperwork in place, healthcare providers and others may be unable to respond to your requests or even discuss your adult child’s personal information with you. To remain involved in their healthcare interests, you’ll want to have a healthcare power of attorney, durable power of attorney and HIPAA authorization in place. It may also be prudent to establish education record release authorizations while you’re at it.

Next Steps in the New Year

We get it. Life never stops. The holiday season can be a busy time that often spills right into the new year. Don’t despair if you can’t get to all ten of these tidbits at once. Take on one each month, and you’ll still have a couple of months to spare before we’re ringing in 2019.

Better yet, don’t go it alone. Let us know if we can help you turn your financial planning jump-start into a mighty wealth management leap. It begins with an exploratory conversation.

Reflections on a Happy Thanksgiving

What makes you happy?  As we wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving, we’d like to take a moment to reflect on this timeless question.

You probably already realize that piles of possessions by themselves aren’t enough. But it may be less clear what does generate enduring happiness and how we, as your trusted advisor, might be one of your core alliances for discovering it.

First, let’s define what we’re talking about. We are fond of this description by “The Happiness Advantage” author, popular TED Talk presenter, and Harvard researcher Shawn Achor:

Happiness … isn’t just about feeling good,
it’s about the joy we feel while striving after our potential.”

Such a simple statement, but it’s packed with profound insights.  To take this even further, I believe that we get closer to our potential when we focus more on others rather than our own well being.  That is, being generous towards others plays a big part in achieving sustained contentment and joy.  It is quite the paradox (that we get the most when we give the most), but it has been believed through the ages and proven more recently in the research.

Happiness isn’t about indulging in fleeting pleasures.

In fact, it’s closer to the opposite of that. If you can only be happy once you’ve “scored,” you are limiting your joy to isolated incidents instead of weaving it into the fabric of your life.

You can still be happy, even when life isn’t all puppies and rainbows.

Distinguishing enduring happiness from occasional pleasures frees us to enjoy even our most challenging experiences, and to savor them as among our fondest memories. It’s why we may willingly burn the midnight oil on a project of deep interest. Pay a personal trainer to push us harder than we’ve ever gone before. Volunteer our hearts and minds to others in need. Give birth.

Everyone has different sources of happiness, but the joy it can spread is universal.

In a world that sometimes seems increasingly polarized, a greater appreciation for happiness might just bring us closer together. As Achor comments: “Joy makes us want to invest more deeply in the people around us. … It makes us want to learn more about our communities. It makes us want to be able to find ways of being able to make this a better external world for all of us.”

By coming together to focus on what sustains us – an optimistic outlook, value-driven action, meaningful relationships – therein we can find greater happiness. That’s what the evidence suggests, anyway.

Again, we wish you a most Happy Thanksgiving!

What do the tea leaves say today?

If you’ve taken our past advice about ignoring the onslaught of breaking market news, you probably didn’t read Russell Investments’ recent “2017 Global Market Outlook Q4 Update.”

I’m not prone to pore over these relatively unremarkable analyses ourselves, but I do read a lot of ‘industry speak’ as part of our due diligence. More times than not, it for purely entertainment purposes to see what the tea leaves say on that particular day.  This is how I came across this intriguing statement in Russell Investments’ wrap-up:

“Our main message for the close of 2017 isn’t much different from our opening one: we maintain our ‘buy the dips and sell the rallies’ mantra.”

Great idea, but a little weak on practical application. It’s akin to suggesting that lottery players can score big … as long as they consistently pick the winning numbers!

Immediately following Russell Investments’ mantra, you’ll find this disclosure:

“These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.”

In all seriousness, I feel these sorts of reports speak inadvertent volumes about the evidence-based mantra to which we adhere.  If you are not familiar with this term evidence-based investing, be on the lookout as I will be writing more about this soon. It is a main tenant to the way we view and implement investment strategies.  By depending on practical evidence instead of fanciful forecasts, our views are rarely subject to change – especially not in hurried reaction to current market conditions.

Instead, we continue to believe the best way to manage your personal wealth is to:

  • Stay laser focused on your bigger picture…are you on track to achieve your goals. Buy, sell and rebalance your portfolio according to your own carefully crafted plans.
  • Focus on an efficient, evidence-based approach to capturing the market’s durable returns while managing its related risks.
  • Ignore the market’s daily distractions, especially its fleeting dips and rallies; they’re far more likely to block the view toward your higher goals than to yield big wins through the chase.

This is our mantra, and so it shall remain – regardless of the date at the top of the page.

What does the Equifax data breach mean for you?

Financial monitoring…this is part of financial planning that gets often overlooked.  Like a crack in the foundation of a house, it is hard to see unless you are looking for it, but it can have catastrophic consequences if left unattended.  As you may have heard, Equifax (which is one of the 3 main credit reporting agencies) admitted to a historic data breach which occurred earlier this year.  If you haven’t heard the details, you need to read about it here.  This explanation and suggested action steps from the Federal Trade Commission is excellent.  Supposedly 143 million people had their personal information potentially comprised.  I say ‘potentially’ because Equifax has not disclosed the exact details of the breach, so we really don’t know the extent of what occurred.  I find it pretty disappointing that the breach occurred earlier this year, they knew about it several weeks, if not months ago, and yet we are just now hearing about it.  That said, I wanted to take the opportunity to highlight a few different points.

What should you do?

First, do not get lax about these data breaches.  Just because they seem to happen all the time, and the numbers of people affected seem so large that it is hard to fathom as real, do not take a laissez faire approach, thinking it will never happen to you.  This is exactly the attitude these criminals look to exploit.  And make no mistake about it…the days of the disgruntled teenager hacking away in his parents basement is long past.  Most of these hacks and the subsequent identity thefts are undertaken by world wide organized crime rings.

Next, check your credit report.  Note, this is different than requesting your credit score.  By government mandate, everyone is allowed one free credit report every year.  You can go through the process here.  It only takes a few minutes.  If you are married, do this separately for both spouses.  This will give you a detailed listing of all credit accounts that are open, or were previously opened, in your name.  I suggest that you download and review this every year.  I have done this fairly consistently, and have found error accounts, or accounts that I thought were closed out but were actually still open.  Closing a credit account (like an old Gap card that you never use or the credit card you opened that one time to get a free plane ticket) may drop your credit score temporarily, but I think it is worth the short term hit so as not to have accounts open that you never use or check.  These dormant credit accounts can also be great opportunities for criminals to hack and use.

Finally, you can be your own best protection against identity theft by just being aware and diligent.  I suggest you read through the FTC’s post (link above) and review your annual credit report.  But don’t stop there…these institutional hacks open the door for more and more identity theft, the fastest growing crime in the world.  At PLC Wealth, we have several procedures in place to do our part to make sure our clients money is protected and secure.  Additionally, TD Ameritrade has even more built-in procedures to ensure money does not move to anyone other than the account owner.  But we can not protect your bank accounts or credit accounts, which seem to be where much of this white collar crime occurs.  It starts with personal information being stolen, then moves to the criminals (usually through computer programs) trying to probe to see where they can get in.  If you think your bank account has been compromised, let the bank know immediately.  They will change your account number and give you new bank cards.   If you see a strange transaction on a credit card, let the credit card company know right away.  It’s likely that you won’t be held responsible for that charge, and they will send you new cards immediately, sometimes overnight.

The main point of all of this is that you need to be diligent.  With 143 million people exposed as part of this latest breach, it is likely that some of your personal information was part of it.  I checked Equifax’s alert site and found that both my and my wife’s information was part of the breach.  That being said, I will most likely not take part in the free credit monitoring service that Equifax is offering, primarily because the service will automatically start billing at their normal monitoring rate after the first year, unless you proactively cancel.  That just seems like a slick way to get more people paying for their services rather than being a true pro bono offering.  I will, however, be watching transactions diligently and checking my own credit report for anything that looks off…and I think you should too.