What the Latest Tax Bill Means for You (Without the Jargon)

A significant tax and spending package – nicknamed the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) – recently passed the U.S. House and is now being debated in the Senate. This isn’t just Capitol Hill chatter – it has direct implications for your financial plans, and I want to make sure you’re informed without getting bogged down by technical jargon.

Here are five key areas currently up for discussion:

  1. SALT Deduction Cap: House Wants $40K, Senate Uncertain

The House-approved bill proposes raising the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap significantly—from $10,000 up to $40,000 (joint filers), permanently. This is a notable change for anyone living in high-tax states or dealing with substantial property taxes.

The Senate, however, hasn’t fully embraced this increase yet. They’re leaning toward maintaining the current $10,000 cap, sparking intense negotiations.

What it means for you:

If you typically itemize and live in a higher-tax region, your deductions – and thus your tax bill – could swing substantially depending on the final agreement.

  1. Child Tax Credit and Family Incentives

Both chambers agree broadly on enhancing the Child Tax Credit. The proposal currently extends the credit at $2,000 per child permanently, with a temporary increase to $2,500 per child until 2028.

The House version also includes a novel initiative: $1,000 “baby bonus” accounts for newborns through 2029. The Senate is debating this component, but no firm commitments yet.

What it means for you:

Enhanced child credits or potential baby savings accounts might mean extra breathing room in your budget or additional savings opportunities.

  1. No Taxes on Tips and Overtime?

The bill includes bipartisan provisions to exempt certain tip income and overtime earnings from federal income tax, at least up to certain thresholds. This initiative targets workers in the hospitality industry, gig economy, and service sectors.

Both the House and Senate versions reflect strong support for making tips and overtime pay partially tax-exempt, potentially putting more money directly into workers’ pockets.

What it means for you:

If your income includes tips or overtime, your net earnings could rise, meaning immediate cash-flow improvements.

  1. Green Energy Credits Could Change Drastically

The House version plans significant rollbacks of existing clean-energy incentives introduced previously under the Inflation Reduction Act. The Senate prefers a more moderate path—keeping credits for geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear energy intact longer, but phasing out solar and wind incentives sooner.

What it means for you:

If you’ve planned home efficiency upgrades or renewable-energy installations, these changes might affect your timing or feasibility, depending on what incentives remain.

  1. Taxes on Social Security Income May Shift

An additional change currently debated is how Social Security income is taxed. The House bill includes proposals to raise the income thresholds at which Social Security benefits become taxable, meaning potentially fewer recipients would owe taxes on these benefits.

The Senate’s stance isn’t finalized yet, but similar adjustments are being seriously considered.

What it means for you:

Retirees—or soon-to-be retirees—might see significant shifts in their taxable income, impacting cash flow, retirement planning strategies, and possibly allowing greater flexibility in your spending plans.

Broader Implications and Timing

  • Deficit Impact:

    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the bill could increase the federal deficit by $2.8–$3.8 trillion over the next decade. The tax cuts, expanded credits, and changes in income taxation are major drivers of this projection.
  • Medicaid and Healthcare:

The bill could also affect healthcare spending, potentially tightening Medicaid eligibility rules, which could indirectly affect financial planning for healthcare costs in retirement.

  • Timeline:

After passing the House on May 22, 2025, the Senate is aiming to finalize its version before the July 4 recess, intending to bundle it with a new debt-ceiling increase.  There is still disagreement on these even within the majority party, so the deadline is currently up in the air.

The Bottom Line (for Now)

Given these proposals are still in flux, flexibility will be essential in your financial strategy. Areas to watch closely include SALT deductions, family-related tax credits, changes in taxable income from tips and overtime, renewable-energy incentives, and especially the taxation of Social Security benefits.

We’re closely monitoring these developments. Rest assured that once the final details are clear, we’ll recalibrate your financial plan together – ensuring you’re positioned to make the most of these new opportunities or to mitigate any potential challenges.

Remember, my goal remains unchanged: helping you live your great life right now, confidently navigating whatever comes next. As always, I’m here if you have immediate questions or if any of these changes prompt you to rethink current plans.

4 Financial Best Practices for Year-End 2023

Scan the financial headlines these days, and you’ll see plenty of potential action items vying for your year-end attention. Some may be particular to 2023. Others are timeless traditions. If your wealth were a garden, which actions would actually deserve your attention? Here are our four favorite items worth tending to as 2024 approaches … plus a thoughtful reflection on how to make the most of the remaining year.  

 

1.     Feed Your Cash Reserves

With basic savings accounts currently offering 5%+ annual interest rates, your fallow cash is finally able to earn a nice little bit while it sits. Sweet! Two thoughts here:

Mind Where You’ve Stashed Your Cash: If your spending money is still sitting in low- or no-interest accounts, consider taking advantage of the attractive rates available in basic money market accounts, or similar savings vehicles such as short-term CDs, or U.S. Series I Saving Bonds (“I Bonds”). Your cash savings typically includes money you intend to spend within the next year or so, as well as your emergency, “rainy day” reserves. (Note: I Bonds require you to hold them for at least a year.)

Put Your Cash in Context: While current rates across many savings accounts are appealing, don’t let this distract you from your greater investment goals. Even at today’s higher rates, your cash reserves are eventually expected to lose their spending power in the face of inflation. Today’s rates don’t eliminate this issue … remember, inflation is also on the high side, so that 5% isn’t as amazing as it may seem. Once you’ve got your cash stashed in those high-interest savings accounts, we believe you’re better off allocating your remaining assets into your investment portfolio—and leaving the dollars there for pursuing your long game.  

 

2.     Prune Your Portfolio

While we don’t advocate using your investment reserves to chase money market rates, there are still plenty of other actions you can take to maintain a tidy portfolio mix. For this, it’s prudent to perform an annual review of how your proverbial garden is growing. Year-end is as good a milestone as any for this activity. For example, you can:

Rebalance: In 2023, relatively strong year-to-date stock returns may warrant rebalancing back to plan, especially if you can do so within your tax-sheltered accounts.

Relocate: With your annual earnings coming into focus, you may wish to shift some of your investments from taxable to tax-sheltered accounts, such as traditional or Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529 College Savings Plans. For many of these, you have until next April 15, 2024 to make your 2023 contributions. But you don’t have to wait if the assets are available today, and it otherwise makes tax-wise sense.

Revise: As you rebalance, relocate, or add new holdings according to plan, you may also be able to take advantage of the latest science-based ETF solutions.  We’re not necessarily suggesting major overhauls, especially where embedded taxable gains may negate the benefits of a new offering. But as you’re reallocating or adding new assets anyway, it’s worth noting there may be new, potentially improved resources available.

Redirect: Year-end can also be a great time to redirect excess wealth toward personal or charitable giving. Whether directly or through a Donor Advised Fund, you can donate highly appreciated investments out of your taxable accounts and into worthy causes. You stand to reduce current and future taxes, and your recipients get to put the assets to work right away. This can be a slam dunk strategy to avoid an embedded capital gain and get a tax deduction for the full value going to the charity of your choice.  If you have appreciated assets, considering gifting these and holding on to your cash.

 

3.     Train Those Taxes

Speaking of taxes, there are always plenty of ways to manage your current and lifetime tax burdens—especially as your financial numbers and various tax-related deadlines come into focus toward year-end. For example:

RMDs and QCDs: Retirees and IRA inheritors should continue making any obligatory Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) out of their IRAs and similar tax-sheltered accounts. With the 2022 Secure Act 2.0, the penalty for missing an RMD will no longer exceed 25% of any underpayment, rather than the former 50%. But even 25% is a painful penalty if you miss the December 31 deadline. If you’re charitably inclined, you may prefer to make a year-end Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD), to offset or potentially eliminate your RMD burden.

Harvesting Losses … and Gains: Depending on market conditions and your own portfolio, there may still be opportunities to perform some tax-loss harvesting in 2023, to offset current or future taxable gains from your account. As long as long-term capital gains rates remain in the relatively low range of 0%–20%, tax-gain harvesting might be of interest as well. Work with your tax-planning team to determine what makes sense for you.

Keeping an Eye on the 2025 Sunset: Nobody can predict what the future holds. But if Congress does not act, a number of tax-friendly 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions are set to sunset on December 31, 2025. If they do, we might experience higher ordinary income and capital gains tax rates after that. Let’s be clear: A lot could change before then, so we’re not necessarily suggesting you shape all your plans around this one potential future. However, if it’s in your overall best interests to engage in various taxable transactions anyway, 2023 may be a relatively tax-friendly year in which to complete them. Examples include doing a Roth conversion, harvesting long-term capital gains, taking extra retirement plan withdrawals, exercising taxable stock options, gifting to loved ones, and more.

 

4.     Weed Out Your To-Do List

I love this one…it is at the top of my improvement goals.  Doing less instead of staying busy with more.  This year, we’re intentionally keeping our list of year-end financial best practices on the short side. Not for lack of ideas, mind you; there are plenty more we could cover.

But consider these words of wisdom from Atomic Habits author James Clear:

“Instead of asking yourself, ‘What should I do first?’ Try asking, ‘What should I neglect first?’ Trim, edit, cull. Make space for better performance.”

— JamesClear.com

 

Let’s combine Clear’s tip with sentiments from a Farnam Street piece, “How to Think Better.” Here, a Stanford University study has suggested that multitasking may not only make it harder for us to do our best thinking, it may impair our efforts. 

“The best way to improve your ability to think is to spend large chunks of time thinking. … Good decision-makers understand a simple truth: you can’t make good decisions without good thinking, and good thinking requires time.”

— Farnam Street

 

In short, how do you really want to spend the rest of your year? Instead of trying to tackle everything at once, why not pick your favorite, most applicable best practice out of our short list of favorites? Take the time to think it through. Maybe save the rest for some other time.

Cash is King + Mortgage Forbearance Options in the CARES Act

Photo by Thgusstavo Santana from Pexels

April 6th 2020

By Matt Miner

First, I hope you and the people you love are well as we slog though the Covid-19 pandemic. Here at our house, we’re trying to embrace the good parts about being together, get lots of exercise outside, and make progress on our daily work, yard, and house.

On Friday I released a video about conserving cash if your income is under pressure. It arose because of client inquiries, as well as Wall Street Journal reportage. This is the companion article.

Now is a good time to accumulate some cash. If your income is not reduced, cash should be accumulating automatically because there’s almost nothing you can go spend money on! This is why the economy is shrinking rapidly.

If you anticipate reduced income, here are some tactics to accumulate even more cash.

For federal student loan borrowers, take advantage of the government-offered deferral on your student loans until your earning situation becomes clear. Contact your loan servicer to exercise this option.

If you have debts you’re paying extra on, now might be a good time to press pause on those extra payments.

If you don’t forfeit an employer match, you might consider stopping contributions to your 401(k) or other retirement plan. You can always “make up” these contributions later in 2020 and still get the tax benefit. If ceasing contributions results in losing matching dollars entirely, you need to weight this carefully. Match dollars are compensation and losing comp is never fun!

This article was prompted specifically by client inquiries regarding mortgage relief in the CARES Act and two WSJ articles (paywall alert): “Struggling Borrowers Want To Pause Their Mortgage Payments. It Hasn’t Been Easy” and “How to Suspend Your Mortgage Payments During Coronavirus Turmoil“.

If you read those articles, you’ll see that even the people charged with implementing this legislation (FHA along with Fannie & Freddy) are going about it in different ways!

What we know:

The CARES Act seeks to provide relief for the 70% borrowers with mortgages owned or insured by the federal government or a federal agency if these debtors experience financial hardship because of the pandemic.

If your mortgage is eligible – a Federally Backed Mortgage under CARES Act (call your servicer and ask), you must make the request before the President rescinds the National Emergency declared on March 13th, 2020. Your servicer should have more information for you.

What we don’t know:

We don’t know how your lender will treat the payments. Will they be put on the end of the loan or will you owe a lump-sum payment at the end of the forbearance period? Different servicers answer this question differently. In the first case, you’re extending the time you pay your mortgage loan. In the second case, you’ll need to come up with a large sum of cash when the forbearance ends.

It is unclear whether you be subject to compound interest – interest on interest. Your servicer may tell you how they are handling this. When I reviewed the legislation, I could not find a clear answer to this question.

Here’s a quote in the WSJ from David Stevens, a former head of the Federal Housing Administration. “The messaging has not matched what’s established in policy yet. The confusion level is extremely high.” No surprise then that the rest of us are still figuring this out!

The article continues, “The Department of Housing and Urban Development sought to clear up some of the confusion this week, telling servicers they can compile the missed payments into a second, interest-free home loan for the borrower to pay off after the original mortgage. The guidelines apply to FHA insured mortgages, which make up about 15% of all active mortgages in the U.S. The federal regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance companies that back about half of the U.S. mortgage market, has instructed servicers to work with borrowers and to consider letting them tack their missed payments on to the end of their loan.”

Servicers Will Struggle to Help

As a savvy planner, you should know that mortgage forbearance sets up an existential conflict between mortgage debtors and mortgage servicers. Mortgage servicers are middlemen who handle payment processing, account reporting, and customer service for the owners of the mortgage. Servicers are required to keep making payments to the mortgage owners – even though their debtors are permitted to stop making payments to the servicer! This conflict means I don’t expect servicers to move especially fast to implement this relief – since it may doom their businesses!

Until the servicers can get their hands in the government cookie jar too….er, receive some relief from congress, my expectation is that they will slow-walk this process because the CARES legislation puts them in a completely untenable position from a cash standpoint.

My general financial planning recommendation about the mortgage relief provision in the CARES act is to steer clear unless your circumstances are dire. Here’s why:

1. You’ll spend time dealing with the mortgage company, and need to jump through whatever hoops are necessary

2. I am concerned they will mess it up, resulting in damage to your credit report. You will be able to repair these problems, but this result will require further effort on your part. I’m not saying this will happen. I’m just saying I don’t have confidence that it won’t happen.

3. No matter how the lender handles the missed payment, taking this route represent cash-flow relief at the expense of your wealth, since you’ll pay more interest over time – it amounts to increasing borrowing on your home. Mortgage forbearance may be better than credit cards or a family loan. But debt is my least favorite way to raise cash.

Pursuing the Mortgage Forbearance Option

If the mortgage forbearance provisions of the CARES act may still help your family, here is a potential tactic. Arrange a six month forbearance, and then at around the four-month mark, refinance your entire mortgage into a new note. This could buy you some time for your income to return to a more normal state. I don’t prefer this approach because it is contingent on three things you cannot directly control.

First, the mortgage you want will have to be available; if that caveat sounds dire, look at the economic carnage we’re experiencing right now.

Second, you need to have adequate income to acquire the new mortgage.

Third, you need to have adequate credit to qualify for the new mortgage.

Because no one knows the future and none of these things are directly under your control, in poker terms, this is a planning tactic for betting on the come. It’s not the type of conservative advice I prefer.

Finally, all this highlights the importance of your hefty-duty emergency fund. Warren Buffet has a gift for memorable language. He says, “When the tide goes out, you can tell who was skinny dipping.”

If this crisis exposed the need for more cash in your life, decide now that that will never happen again.

How will the CARES Act impact you?

There is a good chance that you have more unscheduled time these days as almost every state in the union moves to a stay-at-home orders, but have you used this extra time to read the full H.R. 748 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act?  If you would rather use this newly found time in other ways, here is a time-saving summary of the CARES Act looking at 9 different provisions that may impact you.  This is a longer post than normal, but is formatted so that you can scan through pretty quickly to sections that are more relevant to you.  If you have any questions whatsoever, please be in touch!

CARES Act In General

  • Direct payments/recovery rebates: Most Americans can expect to receive rebates from Uncle Sam. Depending on your household income, expect up to $1,200 per adult and $500 per dependent child. To calculate your payment, the Federal government will look at your 2019 Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) if it’s available, or your 2018 AGI if it’s not. However, you’ll receive an extra 2020 tax credit if your 2020 AGI ends up lower than the figure used to calculate your rebate. This Nerd’s Eye View illustration offers a great overview:

From Michael Kitces at Nerd’s Eye View; reprinted with permission
  • Retirement account distributions for coronavirus-related needs: You can tap into your retirement account ahead of time in 2020 for a coronavirus-related distribution of up to $100,000, without incurring the usual 10% penalty or mandatory 20% Federal withholding. Please note that this is not a waiver of income tax on the distributions, but does allow you to prorate the payment across 3 years. You also can repay distributions to your account within 3 years to avoid paying income taxes, or to claim a refund on taxes paid.  There are some landmines here so be careful to follow the rules exactly should you tap in to your 401k.

 

  • Various healthcare-related incentives: For example, certain over-the-counter medical expenses previously disallowed under some healthcare plans now qualify for coverage. This also allows for expanded use of tax free money from an HSA.  Also, Medicare restrictions have been relaxed for covering telehealth and other services (such as COVID-19 vaccinations, once they’re available). Other details apply.

 

CARES Act For Retirees (and Retirement Account Beneficiaries)

  • RMD relief: Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are taking a much needed break in 2020 for those meeting the new age requirements, as well as beneficiaries with inherited retirement accounts. If you’ve not yet taken your 2020 RMD, don’t!  Let’s talk about other options.  If you have taken a distribution, please be in touch quickly with us so that we can explore potential remedies.

 

CARES Act For Charitable Donors

  • “Above-the-line” charitable deductions: Deduct up to $300 in 2020 qualified charitable contributions (excluding Donor Advised Funds), even if you are taking a standard deduction.  Not much here, but it is worth noting to save a little bit in taxes.

 

  • Donate all of your 2020 AGI: You can effectively eliminate 2020 taxes owed, and then some, by donating up to, or beyond your AGI. If you donate more than your AGI, you can carry forward the excess up to 5 years.  One big caveat: Donor Advised Fund contributions are excluded.

 

CARES Act For Business Owners (and Certain Not-for-Profits)

  • Paycheck Protection Program loans (potentially forgivable): The Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is making loans available for qualified businesses and not-for-profits (typically under 500 employees), sole proprietors, and independent contractors. Loans for up to 2.5x monthly payroll, up to $10 million, 2-year maturity, interest rate 1%. Payments are deferred and, if certain employment retention and other requirements are met, the loan may be forgiven.  The program was set to open up today, April 3, but as of this writing, there is still much up in the air about the actual implementation.  If you haven’t already, touch base with your banker as soon as you can.

 

  • Economic Injury Disaster Loans (with forgivable advance): In coordination with your state, SBA disaster assistance also offers Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) of up to $2 million to qualified small businesses and non-profits, “to help overcome the temporary loss of revenue they are experiencing.” Interest rates are under 4%, with potential repayment terms of up to 30 years. Applicants also are eligible for an advance on the loan of up to $10,000. The advance will not need to be repaid, even if the loan is denied.

 

  • Payroll tax credits and deferrals: For qualified businesses who are not taking a loan.

 

  • Employee retention credit: An additional employee retention credit (as a payroll tax credit), “equal to 50 percent of the qualified wages with respect to each employee of such employer for such calendar quarter.” Excludes businesses receiving PPP loans, and may exclude those who have taken the EIDL loans.

 

  • Net Operating Loss rules relaxed: Carry back 2018–2020 losses up to five years, on up to 100% of taxable income from these same years.

 

  • Immediate expensing for qualified improvements: Section 168 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended to allow immediate expensing rather than multi-year depreciation.

 

  • Dollars set aside for industry-specific relief: Please be in touch for a more detailed discussion if your entity may be eligible for industry-specific relief (e.g., airlines, hospitals and state/local governments).

 

CARES Act For Employees/Plan Participants

  • Retirement plan loans and distributions: Maximum amount increased to $100,000 on up to the entire vested amount for coronavirus-related loans. Delay repayment up to a year for loans taken from March 27–year-end 2020. Distributions described above in In General.

 

  • Paid sick leave: Paid sick leave benefits for COVID-19 victims are described in the separate, March 18 R. 6201 Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and are above and beyond any benefits received through the CARES Act. Whether in your role as an employer or an employee, we’re happy to discuss the details with you upon request.

 

CARES Act For Employers/Plan Sponsors

  • Relief for funding defined benefit plans: Due date for 2020 funding is extended to Jan. 1, 2021. Also, the funding percentage (AFTAP) can be calculated based on your 2019 status.

 

  • Relief for facilitating pre-retirement plan distributions and expanded loans: As described above for Employees/Plan Participants, employers “may rely on an employee’s certification that the employee satisfies the conditions” to be eligible for relief. The participant is required to self-certify in writing that they or a direct dependent have been diagnosed, or they have been financially impacted by the pandemic. No additional evidence (such as a doctor’s release) is required.

 

  • Potential extension for filing Form 5500: While the Dept. of Labor (DOL) has not yet granted an extension, the CARES Act permits the DOL to postpone this filing deadline.

 

  • Exclude student loan pay-down compensation: Through year-end, employers can help employees pay off current educational expenses and/or student loan balances, and exclude up to $5,250 of either kind of payment from their income.  If you have a student loan, talk to your employer about this provision.  And also pay attention to the For Students section below.

 

CARES Act For Unemployed/Laid Off Americans

  • Increased unemployment compensation: Federal funding increases standard unemployment compensation by $600/week, and coverage is extended 13 weeks.  If you have lost your job, apply immediately.

 

  • Federal funding covers first week of unemployment: The one-week waiting period to start collecting benefits is waived.  Again, if you have lost your job, apply immediately.

 

  • Pandemic unemployment assistance: Unemployment coverage is extended to self-employed individuals for up to 39 weeks. Plus, the Act offers incentives for states to establish “short-time compensation programs” for semi-employed individuals.

 

CARES Act For Students

  • Student loan payments deferred to Sept. 30, 2020: No interest will accrue either. Important: Voluntary payments will continue unless you explicitly pause them. Plus, the deferral period will still count toward any loan forgiveness program you’re in. So, be sure to pause payments if this applies to you, lest you pay on debt that will ultimately be forgiven.

 

  • Delinquent debt collection suspended through Sept. 30, 2020: Including wage, tax refund, and other Federal benefit garnishments.

 

  • Employer-paid student loan repayments excluded from 2020 income: From the date of the CARES Act enactment through year-end, your employer can pay up to $5,250 toward your student debt or your current education without it counting as taxable income to you.

 

  • Pell Grant relief: There are several clauses that ease Pell Grant limits, while not eliminating them. It would be best if we go over these with you in person if they may apply to you.

 

CARES Act For Estates/Beneficiaries

  • A break for “non-designated” beneficiaries: 2020 can be ignored when applying the 5-year rule for “non-designated” beneficiaries with inherited retirement accounts. The 5-Year Rule effectively ends up becoming a 6-Year Rule for current non-designated beneficiaries.  This is still going to be tricky, so please contact us before taking any further distributions from an inherited retirement account.

 

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Now you are familiar with much of the critical content of the CARES Act! That said, given the complexities involved and unprecedented current conditions, there will undoubtedly be updates, clarifications, additions, system glitches, and other adjustments to these summary points. The results could leave a wide gap between intention and reality.  As such, before proceeding, please consult with us and other appropriate professionals, such as your accountant, and/or attorney on any details specific to you. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us with your questions and comments. We look forward to hearing from you soon!

 

 

Josh, Mike, Matt, and Sandra

 

 

Reference Materials:

How much do I need to save to retire?

July 17, 2018

We recently read a Wall Street Journal article called “Five Ways to Improve 401(k)s”, and thought one part of the article, “Raise the default savings rate,” was important enough to justify an entire blog post.  In the article, the author discusses the possibility of the federal government encouraging employers to set employees’ default savings rates higher in 401(k)s.  WSJ notes that many plans “set initial contribution rates under automatic enrollment at 3% [and]… gradually raise the level to 10%.”  The article then says that if instead, contribution rates began at 6% and rose to 15% over time, employees would be in much better shape at retirement.

An obvious question is, is this amount too much, too little, or just right?  Like most answers, it depends.  How many years do you have until you retire?  How much of your previous earnings were you spending?

Another important question to ask is, “What will it take to get there?”  Said another way, this question could be phrased, “How much do I need to save to retire?”  If you don’t know where the finish line is, you will never know when you cross it.

Introducing the Savings Rate

The good-news answer to this question is, regardless of whatever the federal government does with 401(k) rules, the largest single variable in this equation is under your control.  How much you save, as a percentage of your income, is the biggest contributor to the success or failure of your retirement plan.  The impact of your savings rate on your retirement plan outweighs the impact of higher returns.  And increasing your savings rate is much simpler and more reliable than chasing exceptional returns.

Of course, we can offer endless caveats to this insight.  The timing of your savings going into your retirement accounts, when the “good” return years happen, and what the returns environment is like when you begin to take distributions all figure into the probability of success or failure of the plan – basically whether you, the investor, ever run out of money or not.  When we run goal-projections for PLC Wealth’s clients, we will use a Monte Carlo simulation software to model the probabilities of various outcomes, but those results cannot be easily shown here.  For this article, we will make simplifying assumptions to illustrate the impact of savings rate.

Basic Assumptions

  1. The only variable we change is savings rate.
  2. We ignore inflation for salary and expenses, but apply it to the portfolio. All dollar-figures shown are 2018 dollars, and we use a 5% post-inflation rate of return for the portfolio.
  3. We ignore taxes in the distribution phase.
  4. We assume the investor can access his or her own or spousal accounts to save this much money in qualified accounts. Even if this last assumption was invalid, the impact of the higher savings rates is still valid even if the savings is done in taxable brokerage accounts.
  5. We assume 4% is a safe withdrawal rate in perpetuity (we know this assumption is debatable, but we believe this is a helpful jumping-off point).

The Data

Looking at these numbers, we can see where planners get their “save 10% – 15%” mantra.  Investors who set aside this amount of money, and receive Social Security, stand a very good chance of retiring successfully at age 65.  Additionally, if reported statistics are to be believed, a 10% – 15% savings rate is much higher than the national average.

Notice too that as you raise your savings rate in retirement accounts, the taxing authorities become your partners in growing your wealth.  Part of your increased savings is coming directly from tax savings, a fact most investors enjoy.

Raising the Savings Rate

Once families begin hitting savings rates of 20% or more, they put themselves in the position to retire early.  Or to downshift at some point in their career.  Or to make meaningful gifts to people and organizations they love.  Saving 30% of their income, this family lives on $36,851 per year.  After thirty-five years, they will have investments capable of supporting annual spending of $85,353 per year – a $48,502 annual income buffer!

In the 5% savings-rate analysis, increasing nominal portfolio returns to 12% results in a portfolio value of $881,718.  This portfolio should support about $35,269 in annual withdrawals.  A 12% expected return is unrealistic for financial planning projections.  And $35,269 per year is considerably lower than the $53,069 this family has been spending.  Investors are better served to increase their savings rate to 15% or 20% of your income (or even more), and to anticipate more realistic returns from your portfolio.  Then, if your investments do better than expected, you’ll have some extra money to enjoy or give away.

The Benefits of Raising the Savings Rate

As lifespans extend, “spending down” a portfolio until some anticipated terminal date is daunting.  With large enough investments and flexible consumption needs, a portfolio becomes a perpetual-motion machine.  With sufficient assets and flexible budgeting, your portfolio should continually generate returns that exceed your annual needs in perpetuity.  This is a very comfortable position as an investor or retiree.

When you consider your own situation, you may think, “But I don’t have thirty-five years left in my career!”, or, “I don’t have access to employer-sponsored retirement accounts!”  Nevertheless, the message to take to heart is: Increasing savings rate increases retirement security.  At PLC Wealth, we can help you work through the unique details of your personal situation.  In an article like this one, our goal is to raise awareness among investors of tools at their disposal to tilt the odds of retirement success in their favor.

In our experience, increasing your savings rate is the fuel for the fire of achieving and maintaining financial independence.  Savings rate rises when you invest more, pay off debt, or grow assets in a private business.  No matter where you put the money, it’s this elevated savings rate that can power you to financial independence.  It’s a rewarding journey and a worthwhile destination.  Happy Investing!

Equifax Security Breach, Part II

I initially wrote about my take on the Equifax Security Breach about a month ago.  In that time since, the news continues to come out about just how pervasive this hack was (and maybe continues to be).  We were already on high alert for instances of identity theft. But the source, scope, and what seems like a justified feeling of betrayal associated with this particular breach have ushered in a new era of cybersecurity. There was before the Equifax security breach; now there’s after.

What does “after” look like, and how can we help you navigate it?  Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all regimen, but here are some of the most frequently cited actions we’ve seen, along with our commentary on them.  Some of these were mentioned in my first post (repetition never hurts) but I have added some new thoughts as well.

What should you do right now?

  1. Check your credit reports using annualcreditreport.com. Keeping an eye on your credit reports has long been a best practice, and should continue to be, today more than ever. Be sure to only use annualcreditreport.com. As the website says, it is the only provider authorized by Federal law to provide you with the free annual reports that already are rightfully yours. Also, so you can obtain a free credit report more than annually, consider staggering the three primary agencies’ reports, selecting one to review every four months.
  2. File your tax returns as early as you’re able. This might sound strange considering that we are only a few days away from the extension deadline; however, January 1st, 2018 will be here before we know it. Plan to have your tax information organized and ready to go to your CPA.  Filing early minimizes the opportunity for an identity thief to file a bogus return on your behalf.
    This may not be practical for some of you, but the bottom line…if you can file earlier than later, do so.
  3. Consider placing a fraud alert or a freeze on your credit. Deciding which (if either) of these actions makes sense for you depends on your personal circumstances. For example, if you’re frequently applying for credit, placing a freeze may be impractical. On the other hand, if you have been a victim of identity theft, an alert might not suffice. In this instance, it’s worth reading through the advantages and disadvantages before determining your next steps. We’re here for you as well, to serve as an additional sounding board.
  4. Consider enrolling in a credit monitoring service. Equifax has offered to provide a year of free credit monitoring and identity theft protection via TrustedID Premier. We’ve seen mixed reviews on whether it makes sense to accept Equifax’s offer. First, there’s the whole trust issue raised by the recent breach. Plus, identity thieves have nearly endless patience, so one year of monitoring is only the beginning. That said, other independent services can be costly (especially if you’ve got an entire family to cover), and they may not ultimately offer much that you cannot do on your own if you so choose. It comes down to a cost/benefit analysis unique to you.
  5. Regularly change the passwords and PINs on your financial accounts. Like regularly monitoring your credit reports, periodically changing your financial account login information has been and remains a best practice. Quarterly or at least twice a year makes good sense to us.

Information fatigue is the enemy of action

We’ve seen other tips and pointers besides these, some of which may be advisable as well. To avoid informational overload, here are three guiding lights:

  • Pace yourself. As with any seemingly insurmountable challenge, it may be best to take things one step at a time, lest you lock up and end up doing nothing at all.
  • Patiently prevail. Approach your security as an ongoing process rather than a quick fix. After determining which actions make sense for you, set up a routine and a schedule for implementing them. Write down your plans, and then follow them.
  • Partner with us. We won’t go into sensitive specifics here but, as financial advisors, we have long been taking strong measures at our end to protect against hackers and identity thieves. That said, no system is impregnable. The more aggressively we join forces to thwart cybercriminals, the more likely we will ultimately prevail.

So, how can we help you moving forward? If you’d like to consult with us as you think through some of the points we’ve touched on above, we welcome the conversation. We also ask you to be responsive when we reach out to you with security-related questions or suggestions. For example, earlier this year, we produced a quick-reference and more detailed overview, “Avoiding Financial Scams and Identity Theft Slams,” filled with perennial information and best practices. We’d be delighted to share those materials with you so just ask.

As this wise educator observed in reflecting on the Equifax breach, “Security isn’t a product. It’s a process.” Just as sensible investing involves taking appropriate near-term steps in the context of an ongoing, personalized plan, so too do we find it increasingly imperative to respond to this and future cyberattacks with upfront planning, well-reasoned action and continued best practices. Let us know how else we can assist with that!